Migration Alert: Weather Pattern Shift on Tap for Central Flyway

As waterfowl numbers continue to build in North Dakota and South Dakota, a weather system predicted to hit the Great Plains next week could finally send many of the birds south down the Central Flyway. In the days since the season’s first taste of winter weather hit the Dakotas earlier this month, temperatures have warmed and snow and ice have melted, giving many birds little reason to leave.

“Snow geese, specks, cacklers, Canada geese—we really have it all right now and in some really good numbers in central and north-central North Dakota,” reports John Palarski with the North Dakota Game and Fish Department. “Ducks are a little harder to pinpoint, but there are pockets of mallards, for sure.”

South Dakota Chief Waterfowl Biologist Rocco Murano says it is hard to say whether mallard numbers in the state are at peak levels, primarily because the shallow floodwaters that attracted ducks to the state this fall have spread birds over a wide area.

“That said, our mallard numbers are still strong,” Murano says. “Our big waters are holding a lot of divers. There are still specks and swans hanging around, and the snows are trickling through. We’re seeing our first good push of Canada geese as well.”

In contrast, Nebraska has had a slow start to the waterfowl season, reports avid hunter and photographer Doug Steinke. “The migration has been very meek. There are ducks in spots, but our weather feels like mid-October, and we’re almost to Thanksgiving,” Steinke says. “We are all waiting for next week.”

Steinke is referring to a dramatic shift in the weather pattern that is expected to bring strong winds out of the north, a substantial drop in temperatures, and the chance for heavy precipitation.

“There’s no doubt that our weather pattern will be changing over the next seven to 10 days,” says Todd Heitkamp, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service based in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. “Following a fairly mild weekend coming up, the pattern shifts to something more seasonal through Thanksgiving. Then the big change comes on Black Friday, when it looks like a fairly cold, north to northwest flow sets up across the Upper Midwest. The good news for hunters down south is that it doesn’t look like it will let up any time soon.”