For the third consecutive year, the total population of breeding ducks in the traditional survey area was stable, but several key species continued their downward trends. According to the US Fish and Wildlife Service’s 2026 Waterfowl Population Status report, the estimate for total ducks was 33.4 million birds, roughly unchanged from 2025 but 6 percent below the long-term average. Meanwhile, mallards and blue-winged teal continued their long-term declines, each falling 11 percent and hitting their lowest levels in over three decades.
Interpreting current numbers typically begins by looking back at habitat conditions from the previous year. Doing so reveals that wetland abundance in 2025 across the Prairie Pothole Region—North America’s Duck Factory—was at its lowest level in over 20 years. “This year’s survey results were largely consistent with our expectations,” says Dr. Steve Adair, Ducks Unlimited’s chief scientist. “Widespread dry conditions last year almost certainly resulted in low production and slight to moderate declines in the number of ducks returning to breed this spring.”
A deeper dive into the report provides additional insights and some cause for optimism. Despite prairie wetland conditions that were near or below average for seven of the last nine years, several duck species, including northern shovelers, American wigeon, gadwalls, redheads, and canvasbacks, remained above their long-term averages in 2026. Scaup (greater and lesser combined) increased 13 percent to 4.2 million and were the second-most abundant duck species in the traditional survey area. Northern pintails, meanwhile, declined by 11 percent from last year, with a breeding population that continues to fluctuate around 2 million birds.
Wetland conditions across the prairies were mixed in 2026. The total estimate for May ponds—a key indicator for wetland abundance on the prairies—was up 14 percent from last year but 9 percent below the long-term average. Drier conditions were present on the US prairies this spring, but drought-quenching rain fell across areas of Prairie Canada throughout the summer, boosting habitat for brood-rearing and late-nesting hens. Breeding habitats in the Western Boreal Forest and Alaska were in good to excellent condition, marking a welcome change from recent drought.
Stable populations and good breeding conditions were the norm across the eastern survey area, which includes eastern Canada and the northeastern United States. Combined estimates for the six most abundant duck species in these regions were unchanged from last year and remained similar to the 1998–2025 average.
A closer look at breeding waterfowl populations and habitat conditions across North America, as well as their influence on the fall flight in all four flyways, is presented in the sections that follow.
Pacific Flyway
Key waterfowl breeding areas for the Pacific Flyway include Alaska, Alberta, and British Columbia, as well as locally important breeding areas in Washington, Oregon, and California. In 2026, total breeding ducks across these regions were down less than 5 percent and just above the long-term average. In Alaska, however, breeding ducks declined 11 percent and were 37 percent below the long-term average. Total mallard estimates in the Pacific Flyway increased 3 percent from 2025 and were 6 percent below the long-term average.
In what has become a trend in duck-settling patterns over the last few years, above-average numbers of breeding ducks were surveyed in Canada’s portion of the Western Boreal Forest, from the Yukon to central Alberta. This region typically supports just over 7.5 million breeding ducks, but estimates surpassed 10.5 million birds in 2026. This was similar to last year’s estimate in the region and accounted for nearly a third of the ducks in the entire traditional survey area. Four species—lesser and greater scaup, American wigeon, and mallards—accounted for about half the ducks across this vast landscape.
The total duck estimate for British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and California was roughly the same as in 2025 and similar to the long-term average. Mallard estimates for British Columbia and Washington increased 9 and 8 percent, respectively. In Oregon, mallards were down 5 percent, while mallard numbers in California were unchanged. Collectively, the total mallard estimate across the southern Pacific Flyway was almost identical to the 2025 estimate and about 10 percent below the long-term average.
Breeding habitat conditions varied across the West. British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and California received below-to near-average spring precipitation, which, combined with a lack of snowmelt, reduced habitat for broods and molting waterfowl. Alaska and much of Alberta fared better, as these important breeding areas received abundant winter precipitation combined with a delayed spring thaw. After snow and ice melted, wetland conditions were good to excellent, especially for late-nesting species and renesting hens.
Although breeding duck populations in the West were similar to those of 2025, habitat conditions improved in a number of key regions, leading to expectations for a 2026 fall flight that will be comparable to or better than last year. However, DU biologists are increasingly concerned about the continuing decline of breeding ducks in Alaska. “Determining what is happening in Alaska is a major priority, especially given the state’s importance to Pacific Flyway hunters,” notes Dr. Mark Petrie, director of conservation science and planning for DU’s Western Region.
Central and Mississippi Flyways
The most important breeding areas for Central and Mississippi Flyway waterfowl are the Prairie Pothole Region and the Western Boreal Forest. Drought continued to influence duck-settling patterns across midcontinent breeding areas. This year welcomed an increase in the total May pond estimate across the prairies, but waterfowl numbers were down overall, likely due to dry conditions last spring and lackluster production in 2025. Total breeding ducks on the Canadian prairies increased 6 percent, driven primarily by gains in Saskatchewan, but remained 14 percent below the long-term average. In the US portion of the Prairie Pothole Region, breeding ducks declined by 21 percent this spring and were 27 percent below the long-term average, showing the persistent effects of a multi-year drought and depressed production.
At the species level, the total estimate for the five most common prairie-nesting dabbling ducks (mallards, pintails, blue-winged teal, northern shovelers, and gadwalls) decreased 5 percent and was 19 percent below the long-term average. Redheads and canvasbacks bucked this trend, with redheads remaining similar to last year’s estimate and canvasbacks increasing 13 percent. Despite long-term drought across their core breeding ranges, these prairie-nesting divers were 26 percent (redheads) and 32 percent (canvasbacks) above their long-term averages, likely due to their reliance on semipermanent, rather than ephemeral, wetlands.
Habitat conditions varied across the Prairie Pothole Region this spring. In Canada, May ponds were up 29 percent but remained 5 percent below the long-term average. Drier conditions prevailed on the US side of the border, as May ponds decreased 10 percent and were 15 percent below the long-term average. On a positive note, intense thunderstorms were frequent and relatively widespread across the Canadian prairies through late summer, with rainfall improving wetland conditions and providing good to excellent habitat for late nesters and broods.
Duck populations across the Western Boreal Forest remained strong, continuing the recent trend of ducks bypassing the drier conditions on the prairies. The estimate of total breeding ducks in this region increased 3 percent from the previous year and was 30 percent above the long-term average. Wetland conditions were generally favorable for breeding waterfowl, and good production was expected.
Hunters in the Mississippi Flyway also benefit from ducks produced in the Great Lakes states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Across these states, the estimate of total ducks increased by 50 percent, and the estimate of mallards increased by 38 percent. Wetland conditions varied across the region but were considered average to good overall. “Wisconsin and adjacent states saw good habitat conditions during the nesting and early brood-rearing season, resulting in average or better waterfowl production,” reports Taylor Finger, a game bird ecologist for the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. “Drier conditions returned in summer, but fall rains improved hunting conditions and provided water for moist-soil food resources that grew during summer.”
While breeding duck populations on most midcontinent breeding areas remained below average, improved wetland conditions should have had a positive impact on production. Overall, waterfowl managers expected an average fall flight this year, likely including a larger percentage of young birds than in recent years.
Atlantic Flyway
Breeding habitats in eastern portions of the United States and Canada supported stable duck populations in 2026. The combined estimate for the six most abundant duck species in the eastern survey area was 4.2 million—similar to the previous year’s estimate and just below the long-term average. Ring-necked ducks were once again a bright spot in the survey, increasing 9 percent this spring and reaching a level 16 percent above the long-term average. In contrast, American green-winged teal declined 6 percent and were 12 percent below the long-term average. American black duck numbers were also down 6 percent, but the population remained 6 percent above the long-term average.
Breeding populations of mallards and wood ducks in eastern North America were similar to those of 2025. The total estimate for mallards, which includes birds surveyed in eastern Canada and the northeastern United States from Virginia to Maine, was 890,000 birds—almost unchanged from the previous year but 23 percent below the long-term average. Wood ducks are highly sought after by many Atlantic Flyway waterfowlers, but because these ducks use heavily forested wetlands, surveying their populations is difficult. A model-based estimate using multiple data sets indicated that the breeding population of wood ducks in the Atlantic Flyway was approximately 900,000 birds, similar to the 2025 estimate and the long-term average.
Pilot biologists reported generally good to excellent wetland conditions across the eastern survey area. By late May, field biologists observed plentiful broods of Canada geese and early-nesting ducks, including mallards and black ducks. In contrast, drier conditions prevailed across the eastern United States this spring, which may have impacted local duck production in some areas. Overall, duck production across much of eastern North America was expected to be fair to good, which should provide another healthy supply of ducks for Atlantic Flyway waterfowlers.
“Wetlands in Atlantic Flyway breeding areas are less sensitive to seasonal changes in precipitation than those found on the prairies,” notes Brandy Neveldine, DU’s director of conservation programs in the Atlantic region. “These conditions result in relatively stable duck populations from year to year, and that pattern held again in 2026.”
Goose Outlook
Increases were recorded for 11 of the 24 goose populations for which annual estimates are calculated, but only two of those increases were considered statistically significant. Those included minima cackling geese (+38 percent) and greater snow geese (+20 percent). Four goose populations showed significant declines from the previous year: Southern Hudson Bay Canada geese (-34 percent), Western Prairie and Great Plains Canada geese (-25 percent), Aleutian cackling geese (-47 percent), and Ross’s geese (-61 percent).
The onset of spring temperatures was initially delayed across many areas of the subarctic and Arctic, although rapid warming led to good habitat conditions by the peak of the nesting season. Geese arrived earlier than normal in southern and western Alaska, but cool temperatures delayed breeding activities in northern and interior areas. Biologists noted drier conditions in areas of central and eastern Canada, with the timing of the spring thaw similar to that of 2025.
Atlantic Flyway biologists reported good production for greater snow geese on Bylot Island in the eastern Arctic. On the Ungava Peninsula in Quebec, spring came early with below- average snow and ice cover reported in mid-June, which likely resulted in above-average production for the Atlantic Population of Canada geese. However, the juvenile-to-adult age ratio recorded during summer banding operations was below the long-term average.
Mississippi and Central Flyway goose hunters should expect average to above-average numbers of most midcontinent Arctic-nesting geese. Biologists observed very good light goose production and healthy goslings while banding geese on Victoria Island in the central Arctic. Production of midcontinent cackling geese and greater white-fronted geese appeared to be average or slightly better than average. Reports from the Hudson Bay area, including Arviat, Churchill, and La Perouse Bay, indicated average production for snow geese and Canada geese overall.
In the Pacific Flyway, goose production appears to have been highly variable this year. Production of snow geese in the western Arctic, including in northern Alaska and on Banks Island, appeared to be fair to average, as gosling development was approximately one week later than normal. Above-average brant production was reported on the Colville River, and biologists observed average or above-average production for emperor geese, black brant, and cackling geese on the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta. Early hunting reports from the region indicated a high proportion of juveniles among white-fronted and cackling geese.
Looking Ahead
Despite recent declines, this year’s estimate for total ducks in the traditional survey area ranked 30th in the 71 years since surveys began in 1955 and was well above the record low of 25 million ducks in 1962.
Mallards and blue-winged teal have experienced lower population levels in the past, with record lows of 4.96 million mallards in 1985 and 2.78 million bluewings in 1990. However, this year’s estimates were the 9th and 16th lowest on record for mallards and blue-winged teal, respectively, indicating significant declines for these species.
Adding to the concern among managers and hunters is the length and severity of the recent duck population declines, which began in 2018 after hitting several record highs during the previous decade. Since then, mallards and bluewings have each declined by 50 percent, marking the steepest decline on record for bluewings and the steepest for mallards since 1958–65. Prior eras of sharply declining duck populations occurred during extended periods of severe prairie drought, which has also been the primary driver of the recent declines. We also know that in all prior instances, duck populations rebounded once water returned to the prairies. History would say we are due for a turnaround, and scientists will be eagerly watching for the ducks to respond. However, the persistent conversion of native grasslands and drainage of shallow wetlands continue to erode the capacity of our prairie landscapes to produce ducks, even when wet weather returns.
“The prairie wetlands of the Duck Factory are the most important waterfowl habitats on the planet,” says DU CEO Adam Putnam. “With more than 60 percent of North America’s ducks produced on these imperiled landscapes, what happens on the prairies affects every duck hunter on the continent. Whether in wet years or times of drought, we’re working together to ensure that these habitats are there to support abundant duck populations for generations to come.”
For the first time in nearly a decade, reports from the prairies are hinting that better times may be on the horizon. “Although portions of the US prairies remain dry, conditions north of the border are encouraging,” notes Frank Baldwin, a wildlife biologist for the Canadian Wildlife Service. “Frequent storms continued into late summer, dramatically improving wetland conditions right across the Canadian prairies.”
For duck hunters, this year’s wild card is a strong El Niño that has formed over the summer and threatens to bring significant weather disruptions across North America in the coming months. The timing, location, and severity of its impacts remain challenging to predict, but being patient and opportunistic when conditions are favorable for hunting is likely sound advice this fall.
Waterfowl hunters are an optimistic lot, and this trait has proven beneficial for generations. Regardless of what ultimately unfolds, we are confident that ducks and geese will again migrate, hunters will head afield, friendships will be rekindled . . . and the authors of this article will be right there with you!
Dr. Mike Brasher is senior waterfowl scientist at DU national headquarters in Memphis, Tennessee; Dr. John Coluccy is director of conservation science and planning in DU’s Great Lakes/Atlantic Region; Dr. Dan Smith is waterfowl scientist for DU’s Western Region; and Dr. Scott Stephens is DU’s senior director of conservation strategy.
Few Changes Expected for 2027–28 Duck Hunting Frameworks
According to this year’s Adaptive Harvest Management report, the US Fish and Wildlife Service will recommend liberal duck season frameworks for the 2027–28 seasons across all flyways. A three-pintail bag limit will again be offered in each flyway, and a nine-day early teal season is anticipated for eligible states in the Central, Mississippi, and Atlantic Flyways. The only notable change in recommendations for 2027–28 is the Atlantic Flyway’s adoption of a new mallard harvest strategy, which will include a three-mallard bag limit with no sex restrictions.
Salute to our Partners
Ducks Unlimited thanks the men and women of the US Fish and Wildlife Service, Canadian Wildlife Service, and state agencies of the Atlantic, Mississippi, Central, and Pacific Flyway Councils for their ongoing leadership in conducting the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey, banding programs, harvest surveys, and other data-collection efforts that serve as the lifeblood of science-based waterfowl management in North America. Continuation of these efforts is vital for maintaining healthy waterfowl populations and a vibrant hunting heritage for future generations.
