2026 Waterfowl Population Survey Results

MEMPHIS, Tenn. – Sept. 1, 2026 – The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) today released its 2026 Waterfowl Population Status Report. This report contains results from surveys and population estimation methods conducted by the USFWS, Canadian Wildlife Service and numerous state and provincial partners.

The estimate for total breeding ducks in the traditional survey area was 33.4 million, which was similar to the 2025 estimate of 33.9 million and 6% below the long-term average (since 1955). Mallards were estimated at 5.9 million, 11% below 2025, and 26% below the long-term average. The 2026 May pond estimate was 4.8 million, a 14% increase from the 2025 estimate of 4.2 million but 9% below the long-term average.

The report also includes breeding population estimates for six common duck species groups from the eastern survey area, which encompasses eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S., from Virginia to Maine. Estimates for these six species groups were essentially unchanged from 2025. The report also provides updates on the status of goose and swan populations.

“These results are largely consistent with our expectations, as last year saw the lowest recorded May pond count since 2004. Those dry conditions almost certainly resulted in low production in 2025 and slight to moderate declines in returning breeding populations this year,” said Dr. Steve Adair, Ducks Unlimited chief scientist. “Mallards are now at their lowest level in over 30 years. This provides a stark reminder that our conservation work is far from done and underscores the need for sustained investments in science-based population monitoring and management.”

The USFWS will release regulatory framework recommendations for the 2027–2028 waterfowl season in the forthcoming Adaptive Harvest Management (AHM) report. Ducks Unlimited will share updates and analysis as they become available on our dedicated Duck Numbers page at www.ducks.org.

Key Takeaways

1. Mallards declined 11% from 2025 to 5.9 million and were 26% below the long-term average. The 2026 estimate was the 9^th lowest on record and the lowest since 1993.
2. May pond estimates increased 14% from 2025 to 4.8 million but remained 9% below the long-term average. Prairie Canada drove the increase, with pond numbers up 29%. Drier conditions led to a 10% decrease in the U.S. prairies, highlighting regional habitat variability.
3. Pintails declined 11% from 2025 to 1.9 million and were 48% below the long-term average. Under the USFWS interim pintail harvest strategy, hunters are expected to have a three-pintail daily bag limit for 2027–2028.
4. Blue-winged teal were estimated at 3.9 million, down 11% from 2025 and 22% below the long-term average. Based on current USFWS special early teal season guidelines, the Service is expected to recommend a 9-day early teal season for 2027.
5. According to the companion Adaptive Harvest Management (AHM) report, the USFWS is expected to recommend liberal frameworks in all four flyways for the 2027–2028 duck season.
6. Diving duck populations remained strong in the traditional survey area. Redheads were 26% above the long-term average, and canvasbacks were 32% above the long-term average.
7. Alaska duck estimates declined 11% from 2025 to 2.3 million and were 37% below the long-term average.
8. Eastern survey area duck populations remained stable, although Atlantic flyway hunters will move to a 3-mallard bag limit, with no sex restriction, for the 2027–2028 season thanks to a newly adopted eastern mallard harvest strategy.

Pond Numbers

Reported pond counts have been near or below average since 2018, leading to a multi-year decline in duck populations over that same time frame. This year, May ponds increased by 14%, helping stabilize dry conditions in the prairies and prevent them from getting worse. This year’s increase was driven primarily by improved conditions in prairie Canada, which saw a 29% jump in estimated ponds due to above-average spring precipitation. However, conditions were drier in the U.S. prairies, with pond counts declining 10%.

Because we cannot predict where precipitation will occur from year to year, it is important to have a base of wetlands across the prairies that can produce ducks when they have water. Much of the resilience we are seeing in duck populations is due to landscape-level conservation that allows ducks to respond to annual variations in water conditions.

Although wetland conditions improved from 2025, pond counts at the time of the survey were 9% below the long-term average. Above-average precipitation persisted across much of the prairies throughout spring and summer. Field reports suggest good to excellent wetland conditions for brood-rearing and late-nesting species in some portions of the prairies, raising expectations for somewhat improved duck production in 2026.

“Despite below-average breeding populations for most duck species, habitat conditions across the major breeding regions were improved over 2025,” Adair noted. “This bodes well for a moderate increase in the number of young birds flying south this fall. More importantly, we are hopeful that these wetland conditions will carry over to benefit nesting ducks in 2027.”

Protecting the Prairies

Often called the Duck Factory, the Prairie Pothole Region of the northern Great Plains produces more than half of North America’s breeding ducks each year. Yet across the region, an estimated 50 to 90 percent of highly productive prairie wetlands have been lost or severely degraded, while 60 to 90 percent of native grasslands have disappeared. Protecting this vital ecosystem requires strong partnerships, sustained investments, and voluntary conservation programs that work for both producers and ducks.

“The prairie wetlands of the Duck Factory are the most important waterfowl habitats on the planet,” said Adam Putnam, Ducks Unlimited CEO. “With more than sixty percent of North America’s ducks produced on this imperiled landscape, what happens in the prairies affects every duck blind in America. Voluntary, incentive-based conservation easements, such as those administered by the USFWS and funded by duck stamp dollars, are the key to protecting the remaining habitat in collaboration with local landowners. As we’ve recently witnessed, the entire waterfowl and hunting communities understand the significance of this critical breeding landscape and are willing to do what it takes to protect it. Whether in wet years or times of drought, together, we’re working to ensure this habitat can sustain abundant duck populations for generations to come.”

Ducks Unlimited is working with private landowners and other stakeholders through a suite of short-term and long-term conservation programs in the prairies. Over the past ten years, DU has helped conserve more than 1.3 million acres on the U.S. prairies alone, with more than 985,000 acres protected.

These efforts have been accelerated by a record-setting $100 million gift from Cox Enterprises and Jim Kennedy in 2024, which established a dedicated fund for prairie conservation on both sides of the border. Thanks to this investment, DU and DU Canada have helped permanently protect nearly 100,000 acres of high-priority habitat to date, including areas that support some of the highest densities of breeding duck pairs on the continent, while helping ranchers and farmers maintain their way of life.

Survey Background

The surveys that provide data for this report, including the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey, which has been conducted since 1955, are recognized as the world's most thorough and accurate wildlife survey effort. The primary purpose of the surveys is to provide annual information on spring population size and trajectory for 19 North American duck species, or species groups, Canada geese and swans, and to evaluate prairie breeding habitat conditions by estimating the number of May ponds.

Data from these surveys inform hunting regulations in the United States and Canada and provide vital information for researching relationships between waterfowl and their habitats, which are critical to effective conservation. The results are eagerly awaited by hunters, scientists, and the waterfowl management community.

Each spring, the USFWS and Canadian Wildlife Service, in collaboration with state and provincial partners from the Pacific, Central, Mississippi, and Atlantic flyway councils, send air and ground crews into the 2-million-acre survey area, which stretches from Alaska’s Seward Peninsula to the shores of Newfoundland, and south nearly to the Nebraska-South Dakota border. For weeks, teams fly, drive and hike survey routes across vast landscapes and numerous types of waterfowl habitats.

View the full 2026 Waterfowl Population Status Report here.