For waterfowl hunters, every fall migration starts with the scientific results gathered months earlier across breeding grounds and nesting areas. Those spring surveys offer the first indication of how ducks and geese responded to conditions they encountered.
The clearest picture of what the fall flight may look like will be shown with the release of the US Fish and Wildlife Service’s (USFWS) annual Waterfowl Population Status Report. This eagerly awaited report summarizes results from a host of population surveys and analyses, including the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (WBPHS), better known as the “May Survey.” Regarded as the gold standard, this survey provides breeding population estimates and habitat assessments for nearly all North American waterfowl.
In addition to the federal survey, several US states carry out their own breeding population surveys each year. Though they tend to fly under the radar, these efforts are essential to state and federal waterfowl management. Much of this data feeds directly into the USFWS’s Adaptive Harvest Management process, which determines duck season frameworks for hunters in America. Furthermore, these counts remind us that homegrown ducks are often the first in waterfowlers’ bags before northern migrants arrive.
The following breakdown explores the 2026 state survey results and the early signals they provide for the upcoming migration.
California
California’s 2026 survey showed a mixed bag of results, with overall duck numbers declining from last year despite generally favorable breeding habitat conditions across much of the state. Breeding duck numbers dropped 10 percent from last year to 435,937, and totals remain below the long-term average (LTA).
Mallards remained the most abundant duck species at 267,101, though showing a 1 percent decline and a 16 percent decline in the LTA. Gadwall fell 44 percent from 2025 to 61,658 and sits at 28 percent below the LTA.
Cinnamon teal rallied with an increase of 8 percent and are 5 percent below the LTA. Northern shovelers dropped 16 percent from 2025 and are 11 percent below the LTA.
In the Northeastern stratum, Canada geese dropped 18 percent year over year and are now 14 percent above the LTA.
Spring 2026 saw reduced precipitation and snowmelt across most of California, yet breeding habitat conditions were rated from average to good. Favorable conditions were largely supported by water carryover from 2025 and a series of January storms that helped counterbalance drier weather patterns. As of July, rainfall remained below average statewide, with the northern and southern regions experiencing the driest conditions, while the Sacramento Valley was closest to its LTA. Despite current moisture deficits, the production outlook remains positive due to water allocations and carryover supplies from the previous year.
Oregon
Oregon’s total duck estimate was 208,712, down nearly 22 percent from last year and 21 percent from the long-term average (LTA).
Duck estimates were lower than the LTA across all strata, with the Lower Columbia River showing the largest decline at 33 percent, followed by the Willamette Valley at 26 percent, southeast seasonal marshes at 21 percent, forested wetlands at nearly 21 percent, and northeast seasonal marshes at 5 percent.
The most common breeding duck in the state, the mallard, decreased nearly 5 percent to 75,668, and registered 14 percent below the LTA. The second most common breeding duck in Oregon, the gadwall, was up over 7 percent and 18 percent from the LTA. Cinnamon teal were up over 30 percent but down nearly 8 percent from the LTA. Canada geese came in at 27 percent at 45,579, up 2 percent from the LTA.
Washington
Washington’s 2026 survey highlighted drier conditions on both sides of the state than the previous year’s, yet showed promise, with most waterfowl populations increasing. Total duck estimates were at 192,449.
Mallards rose to 83,432, an 8 percent increase. Gadwall surged to 27,293, nearly doubling year-over-year. American green-winged teal increased to 15,427. Cinnamon teal nearly doubled to 10,099. Wood ducks also saw gains, increasing to 11,019. Northern shovelers also increased, reaching 7,046.
Among diving ducks, redheads decreased slightly to 6,922. Canada geese were similar to 2025, dropping slightly to 38,428.
North Dakota
Duck numbers were down again in the heart of the US Duck Factory, according to the North Dakota Game and Fish Department’s (NDGF) 79th Annual Breeding Duck Survey. The survey estimated 2.4 million breeding ducks, which was below the 78-year average for the time since 1993. The duck index was down 9.5 percent from the previous year and was 3.4 percent below the long-term average (LTA).
Amidst the overall decline, some high-profile dabbling ducks showed increases. Mallards were estimated at 408,893, up 7 percent from 2025. Northern pintails rose nearly 24 percent to 171,371. Lastly, American green-winged teal, an infrequent breeder in the state, leaped 21 percent to 33,309.
Other dabblers didn’t fare as well. Gadwall slipped 14 percent to 353,326. American wigeon fell 4 percent to 28,328. The largest decrease among dabblers was for blue-winged teal, who were down over 23 percent to 525,163.
Diving ducks showed the greatest declines among the counted waterfowl. Canvasbacks plummeted nearly 32 percent to 40,780. Lesser scaup dropped by over 12 percent to 164,989. And Redheads were slightly down 6 percent to 276,901.
Canada geese were down nearly 7 percent from 2025, coming in at 199,232.
Wetland indices add further context to this spring’s results. While the pond index was similar to 2025, it is nearly 35 percent below the LTA. Wetland conditions at the time of the survey were variable during the mid-May survey, with drying setting in just prior to it.
The July brood survey showed a bright spot for the upcoming season, as timely rains in late May and June boosted production. Brood numbers were up 55 percent over 2025, which should help make up for a smaller breeding population. NDGF anticipates this will translate to a fall flight about 9 percent higher than last year.
Minnesota
Despite a drier spring in 2025, Minnesota’s survey recorded 678,914 ducks, a 63 percent increase from the previous year. Mallard numbers climbed 47 percent, totaling 239,579, and were well above both the 10-year and long-term averages Blue-winged teal estimates soared to 205,650, nearly tripling the 2025 estimate and exceeding the 10-year average. However, they still remain similar to the LTA.
The total estimate for other ducks (excluding scaup) was 677,868, a 62 percent increase from last year, and exceeded both the 10-year and LTAs. Wood ducks, gadwall, northern shovelers, and ring-necked ducks all posted gains.
Canada geese decreased nearly 23 percent to 108,378, standing below both recent and LTAs.
Spring habitat conditions showed a key difference from 2025, driven by the timing of precipitation. During the 2025 survey, rains occurred while the surveys were underway, temporarily boosting ponds, but after breeding ducks had already established territories. In 2026, much of the precipitation happened in April, drawing an abundance of breeding ducks to the North Star State.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin’s survey revealed a duck population essentially unchanged from 2025. The state’s breeding duck estimate was 571,460 and was 28 percent above the 1973–2026 average.
Key takeaways showed that mallard numbers increased by almost 5 percent to 162,894 but remain 8 percent below the long-term average (LTA). Blue-winged teal rose 19 percent to 111,917 and now sit 7 percent above the LTA. Wood ducks came in higher as well at 95,313, up 6 percent from last year and 12 percent above the LTA.
Canada geese were down again in 2026, falling over 2 percent to 122,922, but their population remains healthy at 13 percent above the LTA.
Conducted April 20–May 7, the survey found favorable waterfowl habitat conditions across the Badger State again this year.
Michigan
For the third year in a row, Michigan’s survey indicated dramatic changes. The 2026 total duck estimate was 505,234, a whopping 250 percent increase from 2025, but still 13 percent below the long-term average (LTA) (1991–2025). Mallards soared 61 percent from the previous year to 141,895, but are 54 percent below the LTA, reflecting the overall downward trend for this species.
According to the Michigan Department of Natural Resources (MDNR), the increase was likely due to several observations of large groups of ring-necked ducks, which resulted in the second-highest ring-necked duck estimate ever recorded during the survey. In contrast, the mallard estimates were the third lowest ever recorded, even though they were significantly higher than in 2025.
Canada geese increased 7 percent from 2025, estimated at 251,695, and were 7 percent above the LTA. Notably, the 2026 estimate is slightly above MDNR’s desired long-term abundance range of 175,000–225,000 birds.
Wetland numbers across the state totaled 526,669, representing a 40 percent increase from 2025 and 9 percent above the LTA, which should bode well for local duck production.
Another Year, Another Mixed Bag of Insights
It’s always important to note that these surveys offer more than scientific insight. They provide the first indication of what the upcoming season may hold and fuel the anticipation of returning to familiar marshes and duck blinds.
From significant rebounds in states like Michigan and Minnesota to continued declines in parts of the West and the Dakotas, the 2026 results tell a story of both resilience and uncertainty. While summer habitat conditions and production will ultimately shape the fall flight, the dedication of state and provincial partners that collect these data will continue to provide the foundation for the waterfowl traditions that connect generations of hunters.
