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*Numbers in the Traditional Survey Area
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) today released its 2025 Waterfowl Population Status Report. This report contains results from surveys and population estimation methods conducted by the USFWS, Canadian Wildlife Service and numerous state and provincial partners.
The estimate for total breeding ducks in the traditional survey area was 34 million, unchanged from the 2024 estimate, and 4% below the long-term average (since 1955). Mallards were estimated at 6.6 million, similar to 2024, and 17% below the long-term average.
Pintails were estimated at 2.2 million, 13% above 2024, but 41% below the long-term average. Under the new USFWS interim pintail harvest strategy, hunters in all four flyways are expected to have a three-pintail daily bag limit option for next year’s 2026–2027 season based on this year’s breeding population results. To learn more about the interim pintail strategy, visit the USFWS website.
The 2025 May pond estimate was 4.2 million, a 19% decrease from the 2024 estimate of 5.2 million and 20% below the long-term average. Notably, this marks the lowest pond estimate since 2004.
“Waterfowl again demonstrated their adaptability to changing water conditions despite overall dry conditions in 2024, as late-nesting species capitalized on spring rains in the prairies and those that settled in the Boreal held their own. These flexible breeding strategies and use of continental habitat resources in 2024 appear to have contributed to decent production last year, which carried over to a similar breeding population this spring.”
- Dr. Steve Adair, Ducks Unlimited Chief Scientist
The prairies have now faced several consecutive years of drought, among the longest stretches in recent memory. In early spring of 2025, the prairies were once again dry, but timely rainfall in mid-May recharged wetlands in portions of North Dakota, southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba. These rains should benefit later-nesting ducks, though they came after many early-nesters like pintails and mallards had already moved through.
Much of central Saskatchewan received less than half an inch of rainfall in April and May, leaving many wetlands dry. Wetland conditions in the Alberta prairies varied widely, as scattered rainfall in the south did little to ease the drought, but other areas saw local improvement.
Pond numbers in the U.S. prairies declined 34% from 2024. Timely rains in 2024 fell prior to the survey being conducted, which contributed to the elevated pond counts last year. However, spring rains in 2025 came after the surveys were flown, and when coupled with the effects of a dry winter, contributed to the lowest U.S. pond estimate in seven years.
“Although May rains provided some relief to extremely dry winter conditions, the cumulative effects of widespread and long-term drought in the prairies are apparent, as parched soils soak up available moisture and more and more wetlands continue to dry out. There are long-term benefits of recycling nutrients and exposure of seed banks, but droughts are painful when they’re happening.”
- Dr. Steve Adair, Ducks Unlimited Chief Scientist
Often called the Duck Factory, the Prairie Pothole Region of the northern Great Plains produces more than half of North America’s breeding ducks each year. But this landscape faces mounting pressures. Ongoing wetland drainage, grassland loss and other threats continue to erode the region’s capacity to support breeding ducks.
Ducks Unlimited is working with private landowners and other stakeholders through a variety of programs to protect the prairies. Notably, in the summer of 2024, DU received a record-breaking $100 million gift from Cox Enterprises and Jim Kennedy, establishing a fund specifically earmarked to protect this critical landscape. DU has already made great strides with this gift, protecting over 45,000 acres of habitat to date, with some of the highest densities of breeding duck pairs on the continent, all while helping ranchers and farmers maintain their way of life.
“The continued loss of wetlands and grasslands in the Prairie Pothole Region is the most significant threat to North America’s waterfowl,” said Ducks Unlimited CEO Adam Putnam. “While DU works across the continent to ensure that waterfowl have adequate habitat across their entire life cycle, the prairies remain our highest conservation priority. Meeting the challenges in this landscape requires strong public policy and broad partnerships. Conservation is a long game. Together, we are working to ensure that when the rains return, protected habitat is there to receive it and sustain abundant waterfowl for generations to come.”
The resilience of waterfowl populations reflected in this report is made possible by the support of a wide array of governmental, nonprofit, and corporate partners provided to Ducks Unlimited’s continental conservation efforts, which have now surpassed 19 million acres conserved across North America.
View the full 2025 Waterfowl Population Status Report.
Among the conservation community, waterfowl management in North America remains the envy of the world. Ducks Unlimited salutes the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Canadian Wildlife Service, and the member agencies of the Atlantic, Mississippi, Central, and Pacific Flyway Councils for their ongoing leadership in conducting the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey, banding programs, harvest surveys and other data collection efforts that are the lifeblood of our science-based waterfowl management.
The breeding surveys that evolved into the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey began in 1947 and are recognized as the world's most thorough and accurate wildlife survey effort. The primary purpose of the survey is to provide annual information on spring population size and trajectory for 19 North American duck species, or species groups, Canada geese and swans, and to evaluate prairie breeding habitat conditions by estimating the number of May ponds.
Data collected from the survey inform hunting regulations in the United States and Canada and provide vital information for researching relationships between waterfowl and their habitats, which are critical to effective conservation planning. The results are eagerly awaited by hunters, scientists and the waterfowl management community.
Each spring, the USFWS and Canadian Wildlife Service send air and ground crews into the 2-million-acre survey area, which stretches from Alaska’s Seward Peninsula to the shores of Newfoundland, and south nearly to the Nebraska-South Dakota border. The Canadian Wildlife Service also operates three helicopter aircrews who survey portions of eastern Canada. For weeks, teams fly, drive and hike survey routes across vast landscapes and numerous types of waterfowl habitats. Learn more about how this survey is conducted.
The relationships between precipitation, wetlands and breeding duck populations can be illustrated using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), which provides a relative measure of soil moisture and surface water conditions.
On the graph below, data on total duck population size and PDSI from the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region from 1955 to last year in 2024 shows declining and depressed duck populations associated with years of severe drought, shown in orange and red. As abundant rains return to the prairies and create improved wetland conditions, indicated by green, duck populations tend to increase. To learn more about this relationship through history, check out “Will the Ducks Bounce Back” from the Ducks Unlimited magazine archives.
* Chart courtesy of Dr. Nick Masto. Data courtesy of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
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