By Mallori Murphey

Pair of mallards. Photo by Michael Furtman

Michael Furtman

Around this time of year, hunters start to wonder: What will this year’s fall flight look like?

We will get the clearest picture in September, when the US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) releases its annual Waterfowl Population Status Report. This eagerly awaited report summarizes results from a host of population surveys and analyses, including the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (WBPHS), better known as the May Survey. Regarded as the gold standard, this survey provides breeding population estimates and habitat assessments for nearly all North American waterfowl.

In the meantime, several US states carry out their own breeding population surveys each year. Though they tend to fly under the radar, these efforts are essential to state and federal waterfowl management. Much of this data feeds directly into the USFWS’s Adaptive Harvest Management process, which determines duck season frameworks for hunters in America. Furthermore, these counts remind us that homegrown ducks are often the first in waterfowlers’ bags before northern migrants arrive.

What follows is a survey of the 2025 state surveys—their numbers, habitat conditions, and an early window into the autumn passage.

California

When water returns, ducks rebound—and California’s 2025 results reflected that, especially in the northern part of the state. Breeding duck numbers rose 27 percent from last year to 474,495, though totals remain below the long-term average (LTA).

Mallards climbed to 265,640, up 49 percent from 2024. While still 16 percent under the LTA (1992–2024), this was the highest estimate since 2018. Gadwall also rallied sharply, more than doubling to 110,172, which stands 28 percent above the LTA.

Not all species shared in the gains. Cinnamon teal declined 21 percent and are 14 percent below the LTA, while northern shovelers dropped 26 percent from 2024 but are similar to their LTA.

In the Northeastern stratum, Canada geese surged 81 percent year over year and are now 43 percent above the LTA.

The winter of 2024 and spring of 2025 brought average precipitation across most of California. Snowfall was light from November through February, but spring storms in March and April helped make up the difference. By the end of June, the state sat at about 95 percent of normal. Northern California fared even better, with near- to above-average precipitation. Central California came in around average, but Southern California stayed on the dry side. In the Sacramento Valley, full water allocations for wetlands and rice fields should have given waterfowl a solid boost for the 2025 breeding season.

Oregon

Oregon’s total duck estimate was 267,222, down nearly 12 percent from last year but similar to the LTA. By strata, totals were on par with the LTA in the Willamette Valley, nearly 7 percent above in the Southeast, and below the LTA in the Northeast by 5 percent and the Lower Columbia River by 24 percent.

Excellent habitat conditions during 2024 contributed to improved production and higher breeding populations in 2025 for some species. The most common breeding duck in the state, the mallard, increased nearly 12 percent to 79,525, while cinnamon teal rose 38 percent to 22,764. Despite these increases, both species remain below their LTA owing to lingering effects of drought in prior years. Gadwall declined 10 percent to 58,508 but remains 10 percent above the LTA. Canada geese held steady at 35,922, up almost 8 percent from last year but 20 percent under the LTA.

Washington

Washington’s 2025 survey came in essentially unchanged from 2024, with a decline of less than 1 percent at 159,197 total ducks. Mallards were down 11 percent to 77,037. Gadwall fell sharply, down 31 percent to 14,404. American green-winged teal increased 61 percent to 13,640, while estimates of breeding cinnamon teal more than doubled to 5,087. Wood ducks were up 8 percent to 6,536, but northern shovelers dropped 30 percent to 6,650.

Among diving ducks, redheads held steady with 7,890. Canada geese also posted gains, climbing almost 13 percent to 39,874.

Habitat conditions in 2025 were noticeably wetter overall than last spring, which bodes well for locally breeding waterfowl. However, parts of the western survey area experienced moderate drought in early May, while most of eastern Washington reported average water conditions.

North Dakota

Duck numbers were down again in the heart of the US Duck Factory, according to the North Dakota Game and Fish Department’s (NDGF) 78th Annual Breeding Duck Survey. The survey estimated 2.66 million breeding ducks, representing the second consecutive year-over-year decline, down from 2.91 million in 2024 and 3.43 million in 2023. While the index reported nearly a 9 percent drop from the previous year, it remains 7 percent above the LTA.

Individual species counts followed the overall downward trend, with three high-profile dabbling ducks showing notable declines. Mallards were estimated at 382,588, down 26 percent from 2024 and the lowest since 1993. Northern pintails fell 22 percent to 138,529, while blue-winged teal declined 15 percent to 685,483. Despite the drop, bluewings remain the most numerous breeding duck in the state.

Other dabblers showed similar declines. Gadwall slipped nearly 3 percent to 409,671. Northern shovelers dipped 6 percent to 333,714. Green-winged teal, an infrequent breeder in the state, posted a steep decline, down 24 percent to 27,550.

Amid the declines, diving ducks told a different story. Redheads set a record at 295,424, up 23 percent from last year and 136 percent above the LTA. Canvasbacks climbed nearly 14 percent to 59,770, while scaup were up 26 percent to 188,025.

The report also noted more standouts. American wigeon increased 9 percent year over year to 29,574 but remain 24 percent below the LTA. Other species also sit under their means, including mallards (21 percent), northern pintails (44 percent), and blue-winged teal (4 percent). Canada geese were estimated at 213,058, and while they remain abundant in the state, this year’s index was a 15 percent decline from 2024.

Wetland indices add further context to this spring’s results. The pond index dropped 38 percent, which followed the 39 percent decline in 2024, and is now 33 percent below the LTA. Fortunately, post-survey rains brought modest improvement in habitat conditions for ducks that settled in the state. The July brood survey provided evidence of local production, up 28 percent over 2024. NDGF anticipates this will translate to a fall flight comparable to last year.

Minnesota

Despite a drier spring in 2025, Minnesota’s survey recorded 417,424 ducks, an 8 percent increase from 2024. However, total numbers remain 32 percent below the LTA. Mallard numbers climbed 16 percent, totaling 163,517 but were 28 percent under the LTA. Blue-winged teal estimates dropped 60 percent to a record low of 64,192, standing 69 percent below the LTA.

“Other ducks” (excluding scaup) totaled 189,715, a 119 percent increase from last year and 7 percent above the LTA. Wood ducks, gadwall, and ring-necked ducks were the most abundant species in this group. Canada geese also saw an increase, with a count of 140,476, up 32 percent for the year but still 8 percent below the LTA.

Habitat conditions this spring differed drastically from 2024. Seasonal wetlands declined 73 percent, leaving them 49 percent under the LTA. Wet meadows, marshes, and deeper wetlands fell 22 percent below the LTA, marking their lowest level since 1990. More than 60 percent of the state was in moderate to severe drought in early April. By late May, drought had eased slightly, although 73 percent of the state was still classified as abnormally dry.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin’s survey showed overall modest gains for 2025. The state’s breeding duck estimate was 564,693, a 7 percent increase over 2024 and 27 percent above the 1973–2025 average.

Key takeaways included mallards at 149,568, similar to 2024 but still 16 percent below the LTA. Blue-winged teal declined 15 percent to 75,894 and now sit 27 percent below the LTA. Wood ducks dipped slightly, down 2 percent to 89,885, though they remain 5 percent above the LTA.

Canada geese were down 8 percent to 131,567, but their population remains healthy at 21 percent above the LTA.

Conducted April 16–May 8, the survey found favorable waterfowl habitat conditions across the Badger State.

Michigan

For the second year in a row, Michigan’s survey indicated dramatic year-over-year changes. In contrast to 2024, which reported large increases in breeding duck estimates over the prior year, estimates in 2025 declined substantially. The total duck estimate of 142,333 was 79 percent below 2024 and 76 percent under the LTA. Mallards declined 65 percent to 87,967, falling 72 percent below the LTA. Total duck and mallard counts this year ranked as the second lowest ever, trailing only 2023.

According to the Michigan Department of Natural Resources (MDNR), survey limitations may have influenced the reduced estimates. Delays due to helicopter and pilot scheduling caused later survey timing, leading to leaf-out conditions and reduced visibility in some areas. In addition, not all transects were flown in 2025. Canada geese decreased 12 percent from 2024, estimated at 247,878, but remain 6 percent above the LTA. Notably, the 2025 estimate is slightly above MDNR’s desired long-term abundance range of 175,000–225,000 birds.

Wetland numbers across the state totaled 376,654, representing a 20 percent decline from 2024 and 22 percent below the LTA. Habitat conditions, however, were reported as “excellent” in the Southeastern Lower Peninsula, “fair” around Saginaw Bay, and “good” across the remainder of the Lower Peninsula and throughout the Upper Peninsula.

A Mixed Bag of Insights

For hunters across the continent, these surveys are more than science. They are the first clues of the season ahead and spark the excitement of returning to the duck blinds. This year’s numbers show both hurdles and promise, but the full story will come with the federal report, which will soon be released. We are grateful to our state and provincial partners whose work safeguards the birds that unite us in tradition and carry forward the waterfowling legacy.