Field Reports: 2026 Fall Flight Outlook

An overview of habitat conditions and duck production prospects in key waterfowl breeding areas

By DU Field Biologists
Published on 09/01/2026 • 3 min read
Field Reports: 2026 Fall Flight Outlook
DATA SHOWS PALMER DROUGHT INDICES WITH CATEGORIES CONSOLIDATED AND COLORED TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. CLIMATE ENGINE. 2026. DESERT RESEARCH INSTITUTE AND UNIVERSITY OF IDAHO. ACCESSED ON AUGUST 1, 2026. HTTP://CLIMATEENGINE.ORG. NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION AND AGRICULTURE AND AGRI-FOOD CANADA.

1. WESTERN CANADA

Summer was warmer and drier than average in British Columbia, with much of the province experiencing below-average precipitation, low soil moisture, and varying degrees of drought. Ephemeral wetlands receded earlier than normal in many areas, while permanent wetlands generally retained sufficient water to support hens and broods. Breeding activity was winding down by late July, and recently fledged waterfowl were flocking on larger wetlands in preparation for migration.

2. WESTERN BOREAL FOREST

In the Boreal region, summer was slightly warmer and drier than average, which intensified drought conditions in some areas, especially in the east. Despite limited summer precipitation, many wetlands remained at stable levels following a cool, wet spring. Habitat conditions were generally favorable for breeding waterfowl, with excellent brood-rearing habitat available in many areas, and waterfowl production is expected to be good in the region overall. 

Field Reports: 2026 Fall Flight Outlook
Courtesy of DU Canada | Timely rainfall helped maintain good wetland conditions for breeding waterfowl across the Canadian prairies.

3. PRAIRIE CANADA

Across the prairie provinces, abundant spring and early summer precipitation helped maintain water levels in wetlands and promoted upland vegetation growth, creating favorable breeding and brood-rearing habitat for waterfowl. Wet conditions also delayed haying in many areas, benefiting late-nesting waterfowl. Field observations of broods, though somewhat limited due to dense vegetation, indicate that waterfowl production was good across the prairies, boding well for the fall flight.

4. CENTRAL CANADA

Summer precipitation was close to average across this region, with the exception of northern Ontario, where abnormally dry weather fueled extensive wildfires. Wetland conditions were generally favorable for breeding waterfowl across much of Ontario and Quebec, and field staff observed numerous duck and goose broods this summer, suggesting that waterfowl production was good. Current water levels, particularly in the Great Lakes and coastal marshes, are expected to provide good habitat for migrating waterfowl this fall.

Field Reports: 2026 Fall Flight Outlook
Courtesy of DU Canada | Wetland conditions were also generally favorable for breeding waterfowl in Ontario and Quebec this summer.

5. ATLANTIC CANADA

Compared to the last two summers, wetland conditions were much improved this summer across Atlantic Canada, thanks to beneficial rainfall. Habitat conditions were generally favorable for nesting and brood rearing, and a strong waterfowl breeding effort was observed. As of late July, field staff were observing broods of various age classes on wetlands, which should contribute to a strong fall flight.

6. NORTH-CENTRAL US

Rainfall was scattered this summer across the US Prairie Pothole Region. During the latter half of July, exceptionally high temperatures accelerated the evaporation of surface water in many areas. A bright spot was the Devils Lake region of northeastern North Dakota, where heavy rainfall maintained excellent wetland conditions through late summer. An annual survey conducted by the North Dakota Game and Fish Department showed a 55 percent increase in brood numbers over last year’s estimate, with gadwall and blue-winged teal broods accounting for just over half of all broods surveyed. 

Field Reports: 2026 Fall Flight Outlook
Image by Rick Bohn | In North Dakota, hot, dry weather had depleted surface water in many shallow wetlands by the end of July.

7. GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN US

Above-average temperatures and below-average summer rainfall have resulted in abnormally dry to severe drought conditions across portions of the Great Lakes and much of the northeastern United States. According to state surveys, breeding duck numbers in Michigan were up dramatically over last year but remained below the long-term average, while in Wisconsin breeding duck estimates were almost unchanged from last year and were above the long-term average. Early reports from the northeastern United States suggested that breeding duck numbers were average in this region.

8. WESTERN US

In California, spring rainfall improved habitat conditions for breeding waterfowl, and, according to state surveys, average duck production was expected. Much of eastern Oregon was dry this spring, resulting in a corresponding decline in breeding waterfowl numbers. Current water levels in the Great Salt Lake are critically low, significantly reducing available wetland habitat. In Alaska, cold temperatures kept snow and ice on the landscape longer than normal, but as spring progressed, increased temperatures and longer days brought a rapid thaw. This produced variable habitat conditions, filling some wetlands and causing flooding in other areas.

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