The 2026 Waterfowl Population Status Report was released in September, and while the continental picture doesn’t point to a boom in duck numbers, Atlantic Flyway hunters have reason for optimism. Eastern populations are generally stable, breeding conditions improved across important parts of Canada, and reports from hunters and guides suggest a healthy crop of young birds heading into fall migration.
Sarah Fleming, managing director of conservation programs for Ducks Unlimited’s North Atlantic Field Office, says the eastern portion of the survey is encouraging. “Breeding habitats in eastern portions of the United States and Canada supported stable duck populations in 2026,” Fleming says. “Overall, duck production across much of the eastern states was fair to good, which should provide another healthy supply of ducks for Atlantic Flyway waterfowlers.”
The survey found an estimated 4.8 million ponds across the breeding grounds, a 14 percent increase from last year. While that increase wasn’t uniform across the breeding areas, portions of Canada offered good to excellent wetland conditions in areas important to brood-rearing and late-nesting ducks. This is good news for hunters in the Atlantic Flyway, as the Eastern Canadian breeding grounds probably have the biggest effect on the number of ducks they see.
“Atlantic Canada is supporting wetter conditions compared to the past, and locals are seeing good habitat for breeding and migrating waterfowl,” Fleming says.
Ontario and Quebec generally had good wetland conditions this spring, with many streams, beaver ponds, bogs, lakes, and reservoirs holding plenty of water. Production potential was rated mainly good to excellent across significant portions of the region.
Eastern mallards are below their long-term average, but their year-to-year decline was relatively small. American black ducks remain above their long-term average. Wood ducks in the Atlantic Flyway are roughly at their long-term average. The eastern population of ring-necked ducks is estimated to be up nine percent from last year and 16 percent above the long-term average.
The wet conditions that provided a good hatch didn’t extend all the way through the flyway, though.
“Dry conditions continue to plague the Northeast, especially impacting New England and the Mid-Atlantic region,” Fleming says. “Early fall precipitation will be required to improve habitat conditions in advance of the regular season openers elsewhere.”
Early-season reports suggest the migration is beginning to build, though substantial numbers of new birds have yet to arrive in many areas.
Hunters and guides are largely echoing the findings of the surveys, noting good numbers of black ducks and wood ducks in particular.
“We’re heading into the migration and looking at the local birds, and I think we’ve got a good hatch of resident sea ducks,” says Rod Merritt of Maine, owner of Eider Pro Outfitters and Old Town pro staffer. Merritt is optimistic about the upcoming season, particularly for black ducks and other coastal birds. “I’m looking forward to at least as good a season as last year. The water levels don’t impact us as much because we’re primarily tidal, and obviously that’s a set amount. The ocean doesn’t change that much.”
Merritt reports particularly strong numbers of black ducks. “Black ducks are looking great. We’ve got a good population. I’d say the hatch was really solid this year. From what I’m seeing, the survival rate was good because I’m seeing a lot of young birds that have flocked up.”
Merritt also reported an increase in wood ducks. “You go just a little ways inland, and any of the freshwater ponds and rivers have a very, very healthy population of wood ducks,” he says. “If I had to say one species that’s definitely on the increase, it’s the wood duck population in my region.”
Christopher Calabrese of Saltymutt Outdoors out of Wareham, Massachusetts, is seeing strong numbers of local ducks. “There’s a solid local population of ducks, mostly made up of wood ducks, green-winged teal, mallards, and black ducks,” he says. “The migrant geese have started to show up, and I expect with the weather changing, the duck migration will pick up toward the end of the month.”
Further south, Capt. Ruben Perez of East Coast Guide Service in Massachusetts and Rhode Island is seeing encouraging signs as temperatures begin to drop. A strong nor’easter moved through the area two weeks ago, and although duck sightings had been relatively scarce before the storm, the subsequent cooling trend has brought renewed signs of activity.
“Teal and good numbers of mallards are showing up on ponds, lakes, and rivers,” Perez says. “Wood ducks are always a rewarding hunt, and hunters willing to put in the time scouting should find their efforts pay off.”
Sea ducks and other oceangoing waterfowl also appear to be gaining momentum, offering another encouraging sign that fall migration is beginning to take shape along the coast.
“There seems to be a good population of birds around between mallards, black ducks, wood ducks, and teal,” says Nick Petrou of Natural Outfitters in western New York. With colder temperatures and north winds arriving, he expects migration to increase on a daily basis. “With the cold temperatures and north winds coming, we should be getting new birds daily.”
Ducks aren’t the only waterfowl giving Atlantic Flyway hunters reason to look forward to the season. Biologists are also reporting good production for greater snow geese and Canada geese.
“Hunters should also expect a good fall flight of geese,” Fleming says.
Spring arrived early on the breeding grounds, with below-average snow and ice cover reported in mid-June. Those early-season conditions may also have benefited Canada goose production, particularly the Atlantic Population of Canada geese, for which above-average production is expected.
Sign up for Migration Alerts
Stay up to date with the latest migration information.
