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2010 Waterfowl Forecast

Waterfowl populations remain at high levels overall thanks to favorable breeding habitat conditions
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Story at a Glance

 

  • May pond counts in 2010 measured 34 percent above the long-term average
  • Total breeding duck estimate was almost 41 million birds
  • Blue-winged teal showing a 14-percent decline from 2009
  • Pintail numbers are their highest since 1997, a near-30-year high

Atlantic Flyway

The majority of Atlantic Flyway waterfowl are raised in the eastern United States and Canada, although certain species such as blue-winged teal, canvasbacks, and redheads are largely raised on the prairies. In 2010, the total breeding duck population estimate in the eastern survey area (covering eastern Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic Canada, Maine, and northern New York) was 2.6 million birds. This estimate included roughly 570,000 breeding ring-necked ducks, 440,000 black ducks, 400,000 mallards, 400,000 goldeneyes, and 260,000 green-winged teal. Populations of all major duck species were statistically similar to last year's estimate and the long-term (1990-2009) average, except black ducks, which were 7 percent below the long-term average.

DU Canada biologist Adam Campbell reports that this appears to have been a good year for waterfowl production in Atlantic Canada (New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island), a key breeding area for black ducks and many other waterfowl species. "Ideal spring weather and habitat conditions appear to have prompted a strong initial breeding effort," he says. "Our field staff observed numerous early broods this spring, indicating that many first nesting attempts were successful. Weather was unusually warm and dry this summer, resulting in low water levels, but this likely didn't have a significant impact on broods. Many hens move their older broods to larger wetland areas that are not as likely to be affected by dry weather. As the season progressed, observations of high densities of older broods—including many that had already fledged—indicated that waterfowl production was good this year."

The outlook is also generally good for Atlantic Flyway geese. Reports from northern breeding areas indicate that Atlantic brant and greater snow geese had good breeding success in 2010, and fall populations of these species should include a larger proportion of young birds than in 2009. Typical production of Atlantic Population Canada geese was also observed, and this population should have a fall flight similar to those of recent years.


Looking Ahead

Waterfowl hunters have genuine cause for celebration as they prepare to return to the marshes and fields this fall. Not only are waterfowl seasons fast approaching, but many duck and goose populations also remain healthy, ensuring another year of liberal hunting regulations. DU CEO Dale Hall offers some perspective: "It's great to hear the reports of steady duck populations, but habitat loss continues to be a significant threat to North America's waterfowl. For most species, this year's numbers are encouraging, but DU and its partners must remain dedicated to our mission of long-term, landscape-level habitat conservation to ensure healthy waterfowl populations now and in the future."


Liberal Hunting Regulations Remain in Place

Waterfowl hunting regulations are determined each year by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) in consultation with the flyway councils. This year's midcontinent mallard population of 8.6 million birds and 3.7 million May ponds in Prairie Canada ensured that liberal hunting regulations would remain in place in the Central and Mississippi flyways (see matrix). In addition, populations of eastern and western mallards remained at healthy levels in 2010, allowing for liberal hunting regulations in the Atlantic and Pacific flyways as well. Waterfowl managers also consider the status of certain duck species during the annual regulations-setting process. This year's pintail breeding population of 3.5 million birds was similar to last year's and the largest in over a decade. In addition, a large proportion of the pintail population—roughly 2 million birds—was surveyed in the Prairie Pothole Region, where wetland conditions were generally favorable for breeding waterfowl. As a result, a daily bag limit of two pintails has been proposed in each flyway this year. Species-specific recommendations for other common ducks were the same as last year's. Check with your state wildlife agency for season dates, daily bag limits, shooting times, and other waterfowl regulations where you plan to hunt.

2010 Adaptive Harvest Management Matrix
Fig. 2. 2010 Adaptive Harvest Management Matrix – click image to enlarge


Information Hub

For the latest reports on upcoming waterfowl hunting seasons, populations, and harvests, visit flyways.us, a collaborative venture by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Office of Migratory Bird Management, the flyway councils, and state wildlife agencies.

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