An Average of 33.5 Million Breeding Ducks
Driven by year-to-year habitat conditions, breeding duck numbers have ranged from 25 million to 43 million birds in the traditionally surveyed areas of this continent. During the past 35 years, the average mallard breeding population has been 7.2 million birds. Over this same period, however, mallard numbers have ranged from 5 million to nearly 11 million birds, reflecting the response of mallard populations to dynamic breeding habitat conditions.
Duck numbers on migration and wintering areas are at least as variable as those on the breeding grounds. Midwinter surveys, for example, have varied as much as threefold in each flyway over the past 50 years. Weather, habitat conditions (food and water), and disturbance largely account for this long-term variation and for substantial annual differences in the distribution of ducks up and down the flyways.
Regardless of the numbers of breeding ducks or the outlook for the fall flight, local duck populations during the fall and winter rarely follow range-wide trends. The prospects for the fall flight as a function of annual waterfowl production are usually overwhelmed by local habitat conditions, weather patterns, and just a little luck in choosing the right days to hunt.
An Average of Seven Days per Hunter
No two hunters are alike. According to recent U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) estimates, the nation currently has about 1 million active duck hunters. Hunter participation as measured by duck days afield ranges among states from five days per season for hunters in Maine, Minnesota, North Dakota, and Montana up to 10 days afield in Delaware, Illinois, Oklahoma, and California.
Duck harvest per season is even more variable. Averages of 5 to 30 ducks harvested per hunter reflect differences among states and flyways in hunting opportunity, duck populations, and waterfowl hunting success. Considerable variation is also evident in the distribution of harvest among hunters. USFWS data indicate that roughly 10 percent of hunters account for about one-third of the total days hunted and 40 percent of ducks harvested.
I Still Look Forward to This Fall
When I look back on my hunting experiences, I remember the really good days but not the mediocre ones. And I remember the really challenging days, like when I tore my waders, the dogs got in a fight, the sandwiches fell in the water, the motor quit, and we got back well after dark. But that’s another story.
Weather drives habitat. In turn, habitat produces ducks and provides hunting opportunity. Hunter success is a reflection of the condition of both duck populations and habitat. These all are highly dynamic, and averages often do not tell the whole story.
I always look forward to next fall because I just know it will be better than average—at least in my mind. And I can’t wait until my next trip because I’m certain there will be new ducks tomorrow!
Dale Humburg is chief biologist at DU national headquarters in Memphis.
Beyond the Numbers
Some averages of habitat conditions, waterfowl populations, and hunter numbers are fairly consistent over time, while others are quite variable. Here are some extremes:
- The annual average for May pond numbers in prairie Saskatchewan is 2 million, but pond numbers have varied widely over time from 600,000 to 3.5 million.
- While gadwalls have an average annual breeding population of almost 1.8 million birds, gadwall numbers have increased over the long-term from about 500,000 birds in the 1950s to nearly 4 million by the 1990s.
- Over the past two decades, up to two-thirds of North America’s breeding ducks have settled on the prairies of the United States and Canada in a particular year; however, the average proportion of breeding ducks on the prairies is 57 percent.
- Annual duck stamp sales have averaged 1.7 million since 1961, bottomed out at 1.1 million in 1962, peaked at 2.4 million in 1970, and have been below the long-term average since 1985.