2007 Waterfowl Forecast
Duck populations are up again this year in response to improved habitat conditions on the breeding grounds
By Matt Young
From September / October Issue of Ducks Unlimited Magazine
Extensive field research has shown that ducks need a combination of two things to consistently have good breeding success: extensive, undisturbed nesting cover and healthy, seasonal wetlands. Yet, even in areas with this ideal mix of habitat, duck production is often limited by a lack of water, especially in the semi-arid prairie pothole country of the United States and Canada. Consequently, in 2007, continental duck populations got a big boost from exceptionally wet spring weather on the prairies, which maintained or improved waterfowl habitats across much of the region. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) reports that May pond numbers—the barometer for wetland conditions on the prairies—increased 15 percent from 6.1 million ponds in 2006 to 7 million ponds in 2007.
Most duck populations responded to the abundance of water with an impressive breeding effort. The 2007 breeding population estimate for the 10 most common duck species in the traditional survey area was 41.2 million birds—a 14 percent increase from 2006 and the fifth-largest estimate since surveys began in 1955. In more good news for waterfowl hunters, breeding populations of redheads, canvasbacks, and shovelers soared to record highs. Mallards had a breeding population of 8.3 million birds—up 14 percent from last year and the largest estimate since 2000. Gadwalls, blue-winged teal, and green-winged teal also had healthy increases in 2007 and were well above their long-term averages. And wigeon, which have lagged behind many other duck species in recent years, jumped 29 percent to the highest level since the late 1990s. Only scaup and pintail numbers remained similar to last year and below population goals.
“Waterfowl hunters who remember the long prairie droughts of the past, some of which lasted a decade or more, know that wet years don’t come very often on the prairies,” says DU Executive Vice President Don Young. “And it’s encouraging that we still have the habitat base to support historic populations of many duck species when water conditions are favorable. Hopefully, fall weather will cooperate, and DU supporters will see the fruits of their labor in the form of impressive flights of waterfowl from their blinds this season.”
May pond counts and waterfowl breeding population estimates are compiled during extensive air and ground surveys conducted by the USFWS, Canadian Wildlife Service, and state and provincial wildlife agencies. Although annual duck and goose surveys have important implications for waterfowl hunters, especially in determining hunting regulations, they do not necessarily predict individual hunting success. Weather and local habitat conditions often influence hunting success in many areas of the continent more than the size of the fall flight. Keeping that in mind, the following is a comprehensive report on waterfowl populations in each flyway based on reports from DU and government biologists in the field.
PACIFIC FLYWAY
The majority of Pacific Flyway waterfowl are raised on the prairies of the United States and Canada, as well as in Alaska, northwestern Canada, and other western states. Alberta is a vital breeding area for continental waterfowl populations, but is especially important to Pacific Flyway waterfowl. In 2007, an estimated 4.3 million breeding ducks were surveyed across the prairie and parkland regions of southern Alberta. This year’s population was similar to the 2006 estimate and the long-term average. Among individual species, mallards, pintails, gadwalls, wigeon, blue-winged teal, and scaup declined, while green-winged teal, shovelers, redheads, and canvasbacks increased.
DU Canada biologist Ian McFarlane reports that habitat conditions were generally favorable in 2007 for breeding waterfowl across southern Alberta. “Frequent spring precipitation provided improved nesting cover this year,” McFarlane says. “Nest success appears to have responded accordingly, and brood habitat was in great condition. DU field staff reported sighting a brood on every pond in many areas. As a result, above average waterfowl production is anticipated in Alberta this year.”
To the north, in the Peace parklands and boreal forest of northern Alberta, northeastern British Columbia, and the Northwest Territories, breeding ducks increased 20 percent in 2007. All species that traditionally breed in this region including mallards, wigeon, green-winged teal, and scaup showed population increases. In Alaska and the Yukon Territories, total breeding duck numbers were up 20 percent and were an impressive 59 percent above the long-term average. This included 1.1 million breeding pintails—a 9 percent increase from last year’s estimate.
In the western continental United States, waterfowl habitat conditions were highly variable. “In California, the outlook for breeding waterfowl was really poor this year,” says senior DU biologist Dr. Fritz Reid. “We had some fair duck production in the Sacramento Valley and in the Suisun Marsh, but overall the Central Valley suffered from severe drought. The dry conditions adversely affected every aspect of the waterfowl breeding cycle, from nest initiation to nest success to brood survival. But elsewhere in the Intermountain West, wetland conditions improved as you moved north. Waterfowl production was probably pretty good in the Great Salt Lake area, as well as in much of Idaho, Washington, and Oregon, which are important breeding areas for cinnamon teal, gadwalls, and divers.”
This was a generally good year for goose production in the Pacific Flyway, and most populations should have a fall flight similar to last year. Favorable spring weather and nesting conditions in Alaska’s Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta should result in increased fall populations of cackling and white-fronted geese in the Pacific Flyway, while dusky Canada goose numbers should be down this fall because of harsh spring weather and increased predation by bald eagles on their breeding grounds in the Copper River Delta.
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CENTRAL FLYWAY
The Central Flyway receives most of its waterfowl from the prairies, with the majority of ducks coming from Alberta, Saskatchewan, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota. Most of the flyway’s geese, as well as most of its scaup, wigeon, and green-winged teal, are raised in the western boreal forest and Arctic of Canada and Alaska.
Saskatchewan consistently ranks at the top of North America’s most important waterfowl breeding areas. In 2007, habitat conditions ranged from excellent in the parklands to fair in southern parts of the province near the U.S. border. Total duck numbers in southern Saskatchewan were up 9 percent this year and exceeded 11 million birds for the first time since 1976. In fact, Saskatchewan alone supported more than a quarter of the mallards and pintails and more than a third of the blue-winged teal, gadwalls, shovelers, redheads, and canvasbacks in all of the traditional survey area.
DU Canada biologist Dr. Michael Hill reports that large numbers of breeding birds, coupled with favorable wetland conditions, likely resulted in above average duck production in Saskatchewan. “In the parklands, frequent rains kept many seasonal wetlands flooded well into summer, providing excellent habitat for breeding pairs and broods,” Hill said. “In July, DU field staff observed many older broods of mallards, pintails, and canvasbacks, as well as many younger broods of various species, indicating there was a strong breeding effort.”
In the Great Plains states, habitat conditions for breeding waterfowl were variable, but better than average overall, especially in the eastern Dakotas, where widespread flooding occurred this spring. In North Dakota, total breeding ducks jumped 23 percent from 3.9 million birds in 2006 to 4.8 million birds this year. Duck numbers were up even more in South Dakota, increasing by an impressive 72 percent from 2.1 million birds in 2006 to 3.7 million birds in 2007. And another 1 million breeding ducks were surveyed across Montana. This year’s duck population in this state was similar to the 2006 estimate and the long-term average.
Senior DU biologist Dr. Jim Ringelman reports that waterfowl habitat conditions improved across much of North Dakota and South Dakota after May waterfowl surveys were conducted. “We had fairly dry conditions early in many areas, because we were just coming out of a pretty severe drought,” Ringelman says. “There was decent snowmelt, but most of the water just soaked into the soil. It took a series of heavy rains in late May and into June to really recharge the seasonal wetlands. Although the improvement in water conditions may have come a little late for early nesters, it provided great conditions for renesting and late-nesting birds and provided almost optimal conditions for brood survival. While driving around this summer, I saw many large broods. Typically, hens lose about half their ducklings, but this year, I saw many broods in which up to 80 percent of the ducklings appeared to have pulled through. The strong late nesting effort along with good brood survival should have resulted in good waterfowl production in the Dakotas this year.”
Breeding success among Central Flyway goose populations was variable in 2007. On the prairies, spring flooding may have caused some Canada goose nest losses, but prairie goose populations remain above the long-term average. In the north, harsh spring weather reduced production of tallgrass prairie and shortgrass prairie Canada geese and midcontinent light geese (including lesser snow and Ross’s geese). Midcontinent white-fronted geese also had reduced production in 2007, but population increases in previous years should result in a fall flight similar to that of 2006.
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MISSISSIPPI FLYWAY
The majority of Mississippi Flyway waterfowl are raised on the prairies of the United States and Canada, as well as in the western boreal forest and the Great Lakes region. Manitoba is among the most important waterfowl breeding areas in the Mississippi Flyway. In 2007, total breeding ducks in southern Manitoba declined 26 percent from 1.8 million birds in 2006 to 1.3 million birds in 2007. However, populations of mallards, gadwalls, redheads, canvasbacks, and shovelers remained near or above the long-term average, while wigeon, green-winged teal, blue-winged teal, pintails, and scaup were below average.
DU Canada biologist Mark Francis reports that heavy rains improved wetland conditions across southern Manitoba after May waterfowl surveys were conducted. “Most seasonal wetlands and even some temporary wetlands were flooded in late May and June, providing good habitat for late-nesting ducks and renesting birds and excellent habitat for brood-rearing,” Francis says. “DU staff observed many broods of various species and ages this summer, indicating that nest success was good overall, and brood sizes appeared to have been larger than in most years.”
In the boreal forest of western Ontario, northern Manitoba, and northern Saskatchewan, total duck numbers increased 18 percent in 2007. DU Canada biologist Scott Muir reports that waterfowl production appears to have been good in Ontario, a major waterfowl production area for both the Mississippi and Atlantic flyways. “Spring wetland conditions ranged from good in the southwestern portion of the province to very good throughout the central and southeastern regions,” Muir said. “In southern Ontario, water levels in most permanent wetlands receded during the summer, but most of these habitats remained sufficiently wet to support developing broods. In contrast, northern Ontario received above average precipitation in June, which recharged wetlands and provided abundant brood-rearing habitat. Numerous brood sightings, including reports of many young broods, suggest there was a strong, sustained breeding effort in the province this year.”
Mallards raised in the Great Lakes states (Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin) make up a large part of the waterfowl harvest in the eastern Mississippi Flyway, as well as in the mid-Atlantic region. In 2007, total mallard numbers in the Great Lakes states were up by 27 percent from 588,000 birds in 2006 to 746,000 birds this year. Total duck numbers increased significantly in Michigan and declined slightly in Wisconsin and Minnesota.
DU biologist Dr. John Coluccy reports that dry spring and summer weather may have had an adverse affect on duck production in the Great Lakes states. “Water levels are generally more stable in the Great Lakes region than on the prairies, but this year was dry enough that a lack of water may have reduced brood survival in many areas,” Coluccy said. “On a positive note, the dry weather has benefited many of our larger marshes by drawing down water levels and encouraging germination and growth of moist-soil vegetation, which should provide good migration habitat for waterfowl this year.”
This was a generally good year for Mississippi Flyway Canada goose populations. Breeding success among Mississippi Valley, Southern James Bay, and Eastern Prairie Canada geese was average to above average, and these populations should have fall flights similar to or larger than in 2006. But as in the Central Flyway, poor breeding success among lesser snow and Ross’s geese in 2007 will likely result in reduced numbers of these birds in the Mississippi Flyway. White-fronted goose numbers should be similar to last year.
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ATLANTIC FLYWAY
The Atlantic Flyway receives most of its waterfowl from the eastern United States and Canada, with the exception of a few species such as canvasbacks and redheads, which are largely raised on the prairies. In 2007, the total breeding duck population in the eastern survey area (covering eastern Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic Canada, Maine, and northern New York) was 2.5 million birds. This estimate included 651,000 breeding ring-necked ducks, 569,000 breeding black ducks, and 443,000 breeding mallards. Populations of most duck species including black ducks, mallards, green-winged teal, and ring-necked ducks were similar to or larger than last year’s estimate and the long-term average.
DU Canada biologist Wade Lewis reports that weather and habitat conditions were generally favorable for breeding waterfowl in the provinces of New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island. “Timely rains helped maintain water at normal levels on the majority of DU-managed wetlands in Atlantic Canada,” Lewis said. “Brood surveys indicate that many early nesting attempts were successful. Late broods were also sighted in some areas, but overall waterfowl production and brood sizes appeared to be average or above average throughout the region. In addition, seasonal summer temperatures and weather should have helped many of the ducklings in those broods survive to fledge.”
In northern Quebec, breeding pair counts of Atlantic Population Canada geese increased 22 percent from 160,000 pairs in 2006 to 195,700 pairs this spring, and the total spring population of 1.2 million birds was up 8 percent from last year. Unfortunately, harsh spring weather delayed nesting activity and reduced breeding success. Overall, Atlantic Population Canada geese should have a fall flight similar to last year, but with fewer juvenile birds. Breeding success among Atlantic brant also appears to have been adversely affected by harsh spring weather in the eastern Canadian Arctic. Greater snow geese fared better on their breeding grounds, and a fall flight similar to last year is expected.
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LOOKING AHEAD
In 2007, improved habitat conditions on key breeding areas allowed most duck species to build upon healthy population increases achieved in 2006, producing what by all indications will be a large continental flight of waterfowl this fall. While this is certainly cause for celebration among waterfowl hunters, wetlands and other key waterfowl habitats remain under siege in many areas of North America, especially in the Prairie Pothole Region. Now more than ever, hunters and other conservationists must work together to support programs and government policies that conserve wetlands and associated upland nesting cover. Only by conserving habitat can we ensure that waterfowl populations will be able to reach their full potential when the breeding grounds are wet.