2005 Waterfowl Forecast
Most waterfowl populations should be up this fall as exceptionally wet weather likely increased duck production on the prairies
By Matt Young
Other than opening day, the most anticipated event of the year for many duck hunters is the release in late July of the Waterfowl Status Report. Compiled from extensive air and ground surveys conducted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and Canadian Wildlife Service (CWS) in cooperation with numerous state and provincial agencies, this document provides the best available estimates of annual duck and goose populations and habitat conditions across North America's most important waterfowl breeding areas. Federal and state waterfowl managers use this information to set hunting season lengths and daily bag limits each year across the continent.
The 2005 waterfowl breeding population surveys had mixed results for duck hunters. According to the USFWS, May pond numbers in the Prairie Pothole Region increased 37 percent, from 3.9 million ponds in 2004 to 5.4 million ponds this year. The total breeding duck index in the traditional survey area was 31.7 million birds—similar to the 2004 index and just below the long-term average.
The population status of each of the 10 most common duck species varied (see table on page 58). Of particular concern to waterfowlers, this year's mallard breeding population was 6.8 million birds—a 9 percent decrease from 2004 and the lowest estimate since 1993. Mallard numbers also declined overall in the Great Lakes states and in the eastern survey area. In addition, scaup suffered another population decline this year, falling 11 percent to a new record low of only 3.4 million birds. On the bright side, pintails increased 17 percent, and blue-winged teal were up 13 percent. Among other species, wigeon and shovelers also increased, while green-winged teal, gadwalls, and canvasbacks declined. Redhead numbers were essentially unchanged from last year.
Significant changes in breeding duck distribution occurred within the traditional survey area this year in response to highly variable wetland conditions. The abundance of mallards and most other duck species increased on the Canadian prairies (which were gener- ally wet) but declined in the Great Plains states (which were drier than average), northern Canada, and Alaska. In late May and June, frequent heavy rains dramatically improved waterfowl breeding habitats across the Prairie Pothole Region, particularly in North and South Dakota. Although the wet weather may have come too late to benefit early nesting ducks, the abundance of water likely improved brood survival and encouraged many hens that lost their first nest to continue nesting into early summer.
DU's Chief Biologist Dr. Bruce Batt explains, “The results of this year's waterfowl surveys mirrored the highly variable habitat conditions that have existed in recent years. Much of Prairie Canada has been dry during the spring since the late 1990s, so it's no surprise that duck populations have declined. But this year, breeding ducks appear to have responded well to much-improved habitat conditions in Prairie Canada, and hopefully this will mark the beginning of an upward trend in populations of mallards, pintails, and other ducks.”
Although annual changes in duck and goose numbers have important implications for waterfowlers, they do not necessarily influence individual hunter success. Weather and local habitat conditions often affect the fortunes of waterfowlers more than the size of the fall flight, especially in migration and wintering areas. With that in mind, the following is a comprehensive report on waterfowl populations in each flyway, based on reports from government and DU biologists in the field.
Pacific Flyway
The majority of Pacific Flyway waterfowl are raised on the prairies of the United States and Canada, as well as in Alaska, northwestern Canada, and the western states. On the grasslands of southern Alberta, below-average winter snowfall and dry spring weather produced fair to poor habitat conditions for breeding ducks. Many returning waterfowl overflew the parched grasslands and settled farther north in the parklands, where wetland conditions were much improved following a rapid runoff from substantial snow accumulations. Total breeding duck numbers were up 27 percent in southern and central Alberta, and with the exception of canvasbacks, all major duck species were more abundant in this survey area. Despite these improvements, however, most duck populations remained below their long-term averages.
In early June, torrential rains fell across much of Alberta, refilling wetland basins in areas that had been dry and raising water levels in existing wetlands. This change benefited late-nesting species such as gadwalls and blue-winged teal, renesting mallards and pintails, and broods. DU Canada biologist Dr. Jonathan Thompson reports that wetland habitats in the Alberta parklands were in the best shape he has seen since 1997. “Alberta had an unusually wet fall last year, which provided an extremely good frost seal,” he says. “The parklands had a good, solid snowpack in most areas, and when the snow melted, most of the water went into wetland basins instead of soaking into the ground. Much of the region continued to receive intermittent rainfall through late July, which fostered an exceptionally strong waterfowl breeding effort and provided excellent habitat for broods.”
Farther north, in the boreal forest of northern Alberta, northeastern British Columbia, and the Northwest Territories, the abundance of breeding ducks declined 20 percent in 2005 and was 51 percent below the long-term average, likely reflecting a redistribution of waterfowl to the prairies. In Alaska and the Yukon, breeding ducks declined 6 percent this year, but remained 45 percent above the long-term average. Pintail numbers in the north were largely unchanged this spring and remained near their long-term average despite the increased pintail numbers on the prairies. Weather and habitat conditions were also generally favorable for breeding geese on northern nesting areas. Fall populations of Pacific Flyway geese and brant should be similar to or larger than last year, with the exception of Taverner's cackling geese, which suffered poor production due to a late thaw on the North Slope of Alaska.
Farther south in the western United States, increased mountain snowfall and heavy spring rains helped alleviate drought conditions and refilled wetland basins in many key waterfowl breeding and migration areas. In California, for example, breeding duck numbers were up 49 percent, recovering from last year's record low to a level slightly above the long-term average.
Central Flyway
The Central Flyway receives most of its waterfowl from the prairies, with large numbers of birds coming from Saskatchewan, eastern Alberta, and North and South Dakota. In southern Saskatchewan, runoff from above-average snow accumulations in the parklands and frequent spring rains across the grasslands produced a 65 percent increase in May ponds. Total duck numbers were up 38 percent from last year's estimate and were 9 percent above the long-term average. Among the nearly 8 million breeding ducks surveyed in southern Saskatchewan were approximately 850,000 pintails—almost a third of the estimated North American population. All other major duck species also either increased or were similar to last year in the province.
Veteran CWS biologist Dan Nieman says that unprecedented amounts of rain fell across Saskatchewan in May and June, dramatically improving waterfowl production potential in the province. “Wetland conditions were the best I have ever seen in the 34 years I've worked as a biologist in the province,” he says. “In highly impacted agricultural landscapes, a lot of the first nests are lost to farming activity, and brood survival and renesting efforts are limited as seasonal wetlands deteriorate through summer. But this year, wetland conditions just got better and better as many basins that had been dry for several years refilled with water. Also, haying was delayed for several weeks, and the pastures had healthy growth; so upland nesting habitat was excellent in many areas as well.”
Nieman also reports that brood production and survival appear to have been above average in the province. “We got a lot of rain in June when most broods were hatching,” he says. “But the weather was generally warm, and I wouldn't expect there were major impacts on brood survival. I saw lots of broods of various age classes, which indicates the earlier-hatched ducklings fared pretty well.”
In the Great Plains states, wetland conditions were highly variable when waterfowl surveys were conducted in mid-May. Total duck numbers in South Dakota were down 5 percent from last year and were 26 percent below the long-term average. In North Dakota, breeding ducks declined 17 percent but remained 25 percent above the long-term average. Populations of all major species in both states decreased compared to last year's estimates.
As in southern Canada, however, the waterfowl production outlook in the Dakotas and eastern Montana improved dramatically following heavy rains during May and June. Dr. Jim Ringelman, director of conservation programs at DU's Great Plains office, reports, “Waterfowl habitats across the Dakotas were not in very good shape when many ducks returned this spring, and a lot of birds, especially mallards and pintails, kept going north into Canada in search of better wetland conditions. But we started receiving heavy rainfall in mid-May, and the wet weather cycle continued well into the summer. This refilled a lot of seasonal wetland basins and produced lush growth of grassland nesting cover in surrounding uplands, providing much-improved habitat for late-nesting birds, renesters, and broods. Our research crews have documented pretty good nesting success on a variety of landscapes this summer, and we are guardedly optimistic that duck production in the Dakotas was up this year.”
Central Flyway goose populations also remain healthy. On the prairies, flooding may have negatively impacted gosling production in some areas, but large Canada goose numbers remain well above their long-term averages across the Great Plains. In the Arctic, production of cackling, Ross's, lesser snow, and white-fronted geese should be comparable to or better than last year. Despite increased production this year on northern breeding areas, season lengths for white-fronted geese have been reduced in the Central Flyway. Fall staging populations of these geese have declined at an average of 5 percent a year since 1995.
Mississippi Flyway
The majority of Mississippi Flyway waterfowl are raised on the prairies of the United States and Canada, as well as in the western boreal forest, Ontario, and the Great Lakes states. In Manitoba, torrential spring rains caused extensive flooding throughout the southern third of the province. Total breeding duck numbers in southern Manitoba were up 10 percent in 2005 and were 5 percent above the long-term average. Mallard numbers were especially strong, increasing 16 percent to a level 21 percent above the long-term average. Pintails, wigeon, shovelers, scaup, and blue- and green-winged teal also increased, while gadwalls, redheads, and canvasbacks declined.
DU Canada biologist Mike Hill reports that the exceptionally wet weather in southern Manitoba had significant impacts on both agriculture and waterfowl. “A lot of farmers got their crops in this spring, but they got flooded out when heavy rains started in May,” he says. “There was also extensive flooding in pastures and hay fields. From a waterfowl standpoint, I suspect there were considerable losses of early nests to flooding in low-lying areas. With that said, ducks responded to the abundance of water by continuing to renest through late June, and our field staff saw a lot of late broods. By all indications, we had a fairly good hatch this year.”
In the boreal forest of western Ontario, northern Manitoba, and northern Saskatchewan, total duck numbers declined 21 percent from last year, likely reflecting a redistribution of waterfowl to the prairies. All major duck species declined across this vast region, except wigeon and blue-winged teal. In the Great Lakes states, the outlook for breeding waterfowl was mixed. Both total breeding ducks and mallards declined in Minnesota and Michigan but increased in Wisconsin.
DU Canada biologist Scott Muir reports that waterfowl production appears to have been average to slightly above average in Ontario, a major waterfowl production area for both the Mississippi and Atlantic flyways. “Much of the province had unusually hot, dry weather in June and July, but wetlands in most areas held up fairly well throughout the brood-rearing period,” he says. “The breeding effort appears to have been strong, and we saw typical numbers of broods of various age classes on our study areas.”
This was a very good year for Mississippi Flyway goose populations. Breeding success among Mississippi Valley, Southern James Bay, and Eastern Prairie Canada geese was up considerably, and these populations should have larger fall flights this year. Above-average production was also reported among midcontinent lesser snow, Ross's, and white-fronted geese, and fall populations of these species should be up as well. As in the Central Flyway, however, season lengths for white-fronted geese have been reduced this year in Mississippi Flyway states.
Atlantic Flyway
The majority of Atlantic Flyway waterfowl are raised in the eastern United States and Canada, with the exception of certain species, such as canvasbacks and redheads, which are largely derived from the prairies. In the eastern survey area (eastern Ontario, Quebec, the Maritime Provinces, Maine, and northern New York) the abundance of most duck species declined, including mallards (-36 percent), black ducks (-24 percent), green-winged teal (-46 percent), ring-necked ducks (-30 percent), and goldeneyes (-5 percent). In areas of the northeastern United States surveyed by state wildlife agencies, both the abundance of total ducks and mallards were similar to last year overall.
Weather and habitat conditions were generally favorable for breeding waterfowl on most eastern breeding areas. But in the Maritimes, a cool, wet spring may have been detrimental to early nesting mallards and black ducks. Deanne Meadus, DU Canada's manager of conservation programs in Atlantic Canada, explains, “Reports from the field suggest that early broods were not quite as plentiful as usual, and a number of these broods were small in size. But as summer progressed, the weather moderated, and we saw good numbers of late broods. That indicated there was a strong renesting effort, which should have helped to offset any shortfalls in production that occurred earlier in the season.”
The outlook is bright for Atlantic Canada geese. In northern Quebec, the breeding population declined slightly, from 175,000 pairs in 2004 to 162,000 this year. But an early thaw and mild spring temperatures fostered a strong nesting effort, and gosling production appears to have been well above average. In contrast, harsher spring weather farther north in the Canadian Arctic resulted in decreased production of greater snow geese and brant, and fall populations of these birds should be down slightly from last year.
Looking Ahead
While populations of mallards and many other duck species have fallen from the exceptionally high levels that occurred during the wet years of the late 1990s, the dramatic improvement in habitat conditions on the prairies, especially in Canada, is cause for optimism among waterfowlers. With more young ducks and geese on the wing and hopefully normal fall and winter weather, this could be the beginning of another era of increasing waterfowl populations and better duck hunting.