DUCKS UNLIMITED SPECIAL REPORT
2003 WATERFOWL FORECAST
Waterfowl populations have increased with the return of wet weather on the prairies
By Matt Young
Following three consecutive years of prairie drought and declining duck populations, many waterfowlers expected to have more restrictive hunting regulations this fall. Reports from the breeding grounds early in 2003 offered little hope for a significant improvement in habitat conditions. At the end of March, only patchy snow cover was present across the duck factory. However, prairie weather is notoriously unpredictable, and, beginning in early April, a series of major storms dumped many inches of snow and rain across much of Prairie Canada and the Great Plains states. The heavy precipitation saturated soils and refilled millions of wetland basins parched by drought. The U.S. Fish Wildlife Service (USFWS) reports that May pond numbers—the primary indicator of wetland habitat on the prairies—increased 91 percent, from 2.7 million ponds in 2002 to 5.2 million ponds in 2003.
Breeding waterfowl populations increased significantly on the prairies in response to the dramatic improvement in water conditions. This year’s total breeding duck index was 36.2 million birds—a level that is 16 percent above the long-term average. In addition, populations of all major duck species in the traditional survey area were up relative to last year (see chart on page 56). Pintails increased by 43 percent, from 1.8 million birds in 2002 to almost 2.6 million birds this year. However, pintail numbers remain well below their long-term average.
“ The return of water to the prairies encouraged more waterfowl to settle in the survey area,” says DU Chief Biologist Dr. Bruce Batt. “Duck numbers only recovered to where they were in 2001, but the wet conditions will result in better production than has occurred in several years. This is welcome relief from the decline in duck numbers and nesting effort that we expected. Hopefully, this will be the first in a series of better years.”
Total duck brood numbers surveyed by the USFWS in Prairie Canada and the north central United States were up 23 percent from last year. The fall flight estimate for midcontinent mallards is 10.3 million birds—a 13 percent increase over the 2002 estimate of 9.1 million birds. Many goose populations also had improved production, which will result in more young geese winging south this fall than last.
The annual waterfowl breeding population and wetland habitat estimates are compiled during extensive air and ground surveys conducted by the USFWS, Canadian Wildlife Service, and state and provincial wildlife agencies. Waterfowl hunting regulations are determined each year by the USFWS, in consultation with the flyway councils, and not by Ducks Unlimited. The following is a comprehensive waterfowl forecast for each flyway, based upon reports from government and DU biologists in the field.
PACIFIC FLYWAY
The majority of Pacific Flyway waterfowl are raised on the prairies of the United States and Canada, as well as in Alaska, northwestern Canada, and the western states. During 2003, improved waterfowl production on the prairies, along with typical numbers of waterfowl raised in northern breeding areas, will result in a larger fall flight in the flyway.
Alberta is a major waterfowl production area for the Pacific Flyway, as well as the Central and Mississippi flyways. Across much of this province, runoff from heavy April snows recharged many small seasonal and temporary wetlands, attracting increased numbers of breeding waterfowl. Total breeding duck numbers were up 14 percent across the prairie-parkland region. Pintails increased a remarkable 245 percent from last year’s estimate and were at the highest level since 1997. Wigeon, blue-winged teal, shovelers, canvasbacks, and scaup also increased, while mallards, gadwalls, green-winged teal, and redheads declined. Brood numbers surveyed in July were up 55 percent from last year.
DU Canada biologist Dr. Jonathan Thompson confirms that waterfowl production appears to have increased significantly across much of Alberta. “Wetland conditions were very good this year in the grasslands in the south and in the western parklands,” Thompson says. “I have seen far more broods this summer than I have seen for the past couple of years. I have also seen a lot of late broods, which suggests that many of the birds that did re-nest were able to hatch broods. In recent years, it has been so dry that ducks that failed in their first nesting attempt either didn’t re-nest or they were very unsuccessful in doing so.”
To the north, in northern Alberta, northeastern British Columbia, and the Northwest Territories, the abundance of breeding ducks was similar to last year. However, in Alaska and the Yukon Territories, breeding duck numbers increased 15 percent and were 66 percent above the long-term average. Pintail breeding numbers in the north declined only 10 percent this spring and remained near the long-term average, despite the dramatic surge in pintail numbers on the prairies this spring. In addition, breeding populations of mallards, wigeon, green-winged teal, and gadwall were among the highest ever recorded.
Further south, in the western United States, increased precipitation improved habitat conditions for breeding waterfowl in parts of Washington and Oregon, but much of the Intermountain West remains gripped by severe drought. In California, however, duck numbers were 36 percent above last year’s estimate, and production of mallards, wood ducks, and other species increased significantly.
Goose production once again was variable across major breeding areas in the north. Fall populations of most Pacific Flyway geese should be similar to or larger than last year, with the exception of Pacific brant and dusky and cackling Canada geese, which suffered poor production due to inclement weather and predation on their breeding grounds.
CENTRAL FLYWAY
The Central Flyway receives most of its waterfowl from the prairies, with large numbers of birds coming from Saskatchewan, eastern Alberta, Montana, and North and South Dakota. Increased waterfowl production in these areas will ensure a much larger fall flight in the flyway this year.
Lying in the heart of the Prairie Pothole Region, Saskatchewan has historically been North America’s single most important waterfowl breeding area. Last year, duck numbers in the province plummeted to near record lows in the face of severe drought. In 2003, runoff from heavy April snows and frequent spring rains created a dramatic turnaround in habitat conditions across much of the prairie-parkland region of this vast province. Total duck numbers in southern Saskatchewan were up an astounding 162 percent, from 3.5 million birds in 2002 to 9.3 million birds this year. This included roughly 1 million breeding pintails, which comprised 39 percent of the surveyed population in North America. Numbers of all major species also posted spectacular increases, including mallards (+74 percent), gadwalls (+199), blue-winged teal (+188), redheads (+186), and canvasbacks (+166). Even more encouraging were the July brood numbers, which were up 267 percent from last year and were 7 percent above the long-term average.
Veteran Canadian Wildlife Service biologist Dan Nieman reports, “Wetland habitats across much of southern Saskatchewan were excellent this spring, and duck production appears to have been good overall. Fields were very wet early in the spring, and planting operations were delayed, which enabled many pintails and mallards that nested in last year’s stubble to hatch broods. In fact, I suspect that duck production was even better than the brood surveys indicated. With such high water levels, much of the dense emergent vegetation surrounding wetlands was flooded, so the visibility of broods from the air was probably much lower than usual.”
Improved waterfowl production also took place in the Great Plains states, where farmers participating in the Conservation Reserve Program have retired several million acres of cropland to grass cover. Much of Montana and the Dakotas started out dry, but heavy spring rains dramatically improved habitat conditions for breeding waterfowl. In the eastern Dakotas survey area, total ducks declined 21 percent, while, in the western Dakotas and Montana, duck numbers increased 30 percent. More encouragingly, July brood numbers surveyed in the
Great Plains states increased 18 percent and were 31 percent above the long-term average.
DU biologist Dr. Jim Ringelman confirms that this was another productive year for breeding waterfowl in the Dakotas. “There appears to have been good duck production in South Dakota, where a series of heavy rains in late May and June helped recharge wetlands in many areas,” Ringelman says. “Habitat conditions were even better in North Dakota, and our research crews have seen large numbers of broods, especially in the northern counties in the Missouri Coteau.”
Central Flyway goose populations also remain healthy. Good wetland conditions on the prairies fostered excellent production of large subspecies of Canada geese. In the north, production of small subspecies of Canada geese, as well as lesser snow, Ross’ and white-fronted geese, was similar to or better than last year.
MISSISSIPPI FLYWAY
The majority of waterfowl in the Mississippi Flyway are raised on the prairies of the United States and Canada, as well as in Ontario and the Great Lakes states. Much-improved waterfowl production on the prairies, especially in Saskatchewan, will result in a larger fall flight in the flyway.
Manitoba is among the most important waterfowl breeding areas in the Mississippi Flyway. In the province’s prairie-parkland region, total duck numbers increased 21 percent in 2003. Mallard numbers were 26 percent higher than last year and were 35 percent above the long-term average. Pintails, shovelers, redheads, and blue- and green-winged teal also increased, while gadwalls, wigeon, canvasbacks, and scaup declined. July brood numbers were up 21 percent, mirroring the increase in abundance of breeding ducks.
DU Canada biologist Don Sexton reports that waterfowl production appears to have been average to slightly better than average in the province. “In southwestern Manitoba, duck numbers increased, but dry summer weather may have limited the availability of brood habitat in some areas,” Sexton says. “Farther north, in the parklands and Saskatchewan River Delta, observations of large numbers of broods by our field staff suggests that production may have been better than expected.”
Wet spring weather also improved habitat conditions across much of Ontario—an important waterfowl breeding area for the eastern Mississippi Flyway, as well as the Atlantic Flyway. Total duck numbers were down slightly in the province, but the abundance of mallards increased dramatically. DU Canada biologist Mike Gendron reports, “Throughout much of central and southern Ontario, persistent spring precipitation put wetland habitats in excellent shape. There appears to have been a strong waterfowl breeding effort, and brood surveys suggest that duck production was about average.”
Mallards raised in the Great Lakes states compose a large proportion of the waterfowl harvest in the eastern Mississippi Flyway. In 2003, mallard numbers in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan declined by 15 percent, from 1 million birds in 2002 to 850,000 this year. Populations of other ducks also declined in these states, but many remain above their long-term averages. DU biologist Dr. Tina Yerkes says, “This appears to have been a typical year for waterfowl production in the Great Lakes states. We had a wet spring, which helped to maintain water levels in many areas. On our research sites, nesting success was generally comparable to last year, and brood survival was average to slightly better than average.”
Most Mississippi Flyway goose populations had a good year in 2003. Breeding success among Mississippi Valley and Southern James Bay Canada geese was up considerably, and both populations should have larger fall flights this year. Above- average production was also reported among mid-continent lesser snow, Ross’, and white-fronted geese, and fall populations of these species should be up as well.
ATLANTIC FLYWAY
The Atlantic Flyway receives most of its waterfowl from the eastern United States and Canada, with the exception of certain species, such as canvasbacks, redheads, and blue-winged teal, which are largely raised on the prairies. In 2003, waterfowl production in eastern breeding areas, bolstered by improved production among prairie-nesting species, should result in a larger fall flight in the Atlantic Flyway.
Spring was mild and wet across most of eastern Ontario, southern Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and New England, creating generally good wetland conditions and allowing waterfowl to begin nesting on schedule across this region. The outlook for waterfowl production was somewhat less favorable farther north, in northern Quebec, Labrador, and Newfoundland, where drier weather limited the number of beaver ponds and shallow marshes used by breeding ducks. Total breeding ducks in the eastern survey area declined 17 percent from last year, but remained 10 percent above the long-term average. Mallard numbers, however, increased 30 percent and were 27 percent above the long-term average. The abundance of black ducks, wigeon, and ring-necked ducks was similar to last year, while all other species declined.
DU Canada biologist Andrew MacInnis reports, “In Atlantic Canada, it’s been a very good year from a habitat perspective. We have had abundant water and generally favorable weather throughout the summer, and we are looking for strong recruitment of black ducks, mallards, and other duck species.”
The Atlantic Canada goose population continued to make a strong recovery this year. In northern Quebec, biologists surveyed an estimated 156,900 breeding pairs this spring—a population similar to that of 2002. However, ground crews observed a strong breeding effort, moderate nest success, and large clutch sizes, suggesting that this was a generally good year for production. As a result, the fall flight of Atlantic Canada geese should be larger than last year.
“ We are very encouraged by the continued comeback of Atlantic Canada geese,” Dr. Batt says. “This population has grown at a rate of almost 20 percent a year since 1994, which has enabled managers to reopen the hunting season.
Farther north, in the eastern Canadian Arctic, weather and habitat conditions were also favorable for production of greater snow geese and Atlantic brant, and fall populations of both species should be up this year.
North America’s waterfowl once again showed remarkable resilience in 2003, reversing a three-year population decline caused by reduced habitat on their breeding grounds. Millions of young ducks and geese raised across the prairies and in other key breeding areas this summer are living proof of how prolific the birds can be when habitat conditions are favorable. Despite this welcome increase in waterfowl populations, however, weather and local habitat conditions once again will have the greatest impact on hunting success across the United States this fall.