Ducks Unlimited Special Report

By Matt Young  Senior Writer

2001 Waterfowl Forecast

Depending on which part of the Prairie Pothole Region that you visited this spring, 2001 was either the best of times or the worst of times for breeding waterfowl. Across western Saskatchewan, Alberta, and much of eastern Montana, drought conditions persisted throughout the breeding season, limiting the abundance of wetland habitat for waterfowl pairs and broods. In especially dry regions, moisture levels were so low during the planting season that clouds of blowing topsoil, reminiscent of the Dust Bowl days, shrouded the prairie sky. Not surprisingly, breeding waterfowl populations on thewestern prairies plummeted, with many species declining to the lowest levels in a decade.

In great contrast, unusually wet spring weather prevailed across southeastern Saskatchewan, Manitoba, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Iowa. Habitat conditions were good to excellent in these areas, and duck populations remained at high levels. Farther north, waterfowl held their own in Alaska and the Yukon Territory, but declined sharply in the western boreal forest of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. In the eastern survey area, waterfowl numbers were similar to last year.

The abundance of water on the eastern prairies helped to offset the deterioration of wetland habitats to the west. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) reports that May pond numbers-the primary indicator of wetland habitat conditions on the prairies-increased 18 percent in 2001. However, total breeding duck numbers in the traditional survey area fell 14 percent, from 41.8 million birds in 2000 to 36.1 million birds in 2001. This decline mirrors the significant decrease in duck production that occurred on the prairies last year. Nevertheless, breeding populations of all major duck species remained near or above their management objectives, with the exception of pintails and scaup, which remain well below their long-term averages.

In 2001, waterfowl production once again was highly variable across the surveyed area. Although the USFWS no longer calculates a fall flight index for total ducks, the agency has issued a preliminary fall flight index for mid-continent mallards of 10.5 million birds-down only 6 percent from last year's index of 11.2 million birds. Goose production also varied considerably across northern breeding areas, but most populations remain healthy.

The annual waterfowl breeding population estimates and wetland habitat surveys, which are critical to the management and conservation of continental waterfowl populations, are compiled from data gathered during extensive air and ground surveys conducted by the USFWS, Canadian Wildlife Service, and state and provincial wildlife agencies, with the assistance of volunteers from universities and private conservation organizations, including Ducks Unlimited. The following is a comprehensive waterfowl population forecast for each flyway, based upon reports from government and DU biologists in the field.

Pacific Flyway
The majority of Pacific Flyway waterfowl are raised in the western U.S. and Canada, with Alberta, Alaska, British Columbia, and Northwest Territories contributing the largest numbers of birds. During 2001, decreased waterfowl production on the prairies and in the western boreal forest should result in a significantly reduced fall flight in the flyway.

The province of Alberta is a major waterfowl production area for the Pacific Flyway, as well as the Central and Mississippi flyways. After a warm, dry winter and early spring, severe drought gripped much of the province throughout the breeding season. Across the prairie and parkland regions, total breeding duck numbers fell 28 percent to the lowest levels since the early 1990s, and pintails plummeted 65 percent to an all-time low of only 66,000 birds. All other duck species also posted double-digit declines, with redhead and canvasback numbers declining by roughly 50 percent.

DU Canada biologist Dr. Jonathon Thompson reports, "This spring was as dry as anybody remembers in the Alberta parklands, and waterfowl populations certainly reflected that. With little snowmelt runoff or spring rainfall, we had very few temporary and seasonal wetlands to attract and hold breeding pairs, especially early nesters such as mallards and pintails."

In Alaska and the Yukon Territory, breeding duck numbers remained near a record high. The total duck population of 6.4 million birds included 1.4 million pintails-a level 58 percent above the long-term average. In a study supported in part by Ducks Unlimited, many hen pintails marked with satellite transmitters in California's Central Valley overflew the drought-ravaged western prairies and settled in the subarctic. However, some of the birds migrated east to the Dakotas and southeastern Saskatchewan, where breeding habitat conditions were excellent.

"Our migration research supports the long-held view that pintails are a species that will move to new areas to take advantage of better spring wetland conditions," says DU Chief Biologist Dr. Bruce Batt. "Despite the severe drought conditions in Alberta and western Saskatchewan, more pintails settled to breed in productive prairie habitats in 2001, so pintail production should have increased this year."

Goose production was variable across primary breeding areas in the north. However, most Pacific Flyway goose populations remain healthy overall, and fall flights of Canada geese, lesser snows, Ross' geese, white-fronted geese, and Pacific brant should be similar to last year.

Central Flyway
The Central Flyway receives the majority of its waterfowl from the Prairie Pothole Region, as well as from the western boreal forest and the central Canadian subarctic. In 2001, the continued deterioration of habitat conditions across much of the Canadian prairies and in eastern Montana should result in a reduced fall flight in the region.

Saskatchewan is among North America's most important waterfowl production areas, supporting more than a quarter of the continent's breeding mallards and pintails during wet years. As in Alberta, severe drought conditions gripped much of Saskatchewan this spring, with the exception of the extreme southeastern corner of the province, where a heavy snow pack and heavy rains produced good to excellent breeding habitat conditions.

The abundance of water in this area resulted in a slight increase in May pond numbers in the province, but the index remained 23 percent below the long-term average. For the first time since 1994, breeding mallard numbers in southern Saskatchewan fell below the long-term average. Redheads, shovelers, wigeon, and blue- and green-winged teal also showed dramatic declines. However, pintail and scaup numbers were up, and canvasbacks were unchanged from last year.

Veteran Canadian Wildlife Service biologist Dan Nieman reports that duck production appears to have been down significantly in Saskatchewan. "Due to the extremely dry conditions, the waterfowl breeding effort was weak in many areas of the province," Nieman says. "Parts of western Saskatchewan are a veritable desert. Even large lakes and semipermanent wetlands in the parklands are at very low levels or have gone dry. About the only bright spot for duck production was southeastern Saskatchewan, but this area constitutes only a small area of the province."

In Montana, habitat conditions were mixed, ranging from good in the northeast corner of the state to poor along the Alberta border. May pond numbers declined 5 percent and were nearly 42 percent below the long-term average. Total breeding ducks were up roughly 10 percent, and all major duck species increased, except mallards and wigeon, which both declined by more than 20 percent. In late June and July, heavy thunderstorms recharged wetlands in some areas, but waterfowl production once again appears to have been below average in the state. Habitat conditions were much more favorable for breeding waterfowl in the Dakotas, where a rapid snowmelt and heavy rains replenished wetland basins and fostered lush growth of upland nesting cover. Once again, near record numbers of breeding ducks settled in both states.

Collectively, total breeding ducks exceeded 10 million birds, including 2.5 million mallards, 3.3 million blue-winged teal, 1.3 million gadwalls, and 760,000 pintails. Duck production was also spectacular in the Dakotas in 2001, especially on grassland-dominated landscapes in the Missouri and Prairie coteau regions. Bolstered by excellent production in these areas, the brood index in the eastern Dakotas survey area was the second highest on record.

DU biologist Dr. Jim Ringelman confirms that this was another very good year for waterfowl production in North and South Dakota. "Initial reports from our research teams working in the Missouri Coteau indicate that nest success was even better than last year," Ringelman says. "Pintails, in particular, appear to have done well. We continued to find pintail nests well into the summer, which was very surprising because pintails are not thought of as persistent renesters. Apparently, the excellent wetland conditions fostered an unusually strong breeding effort."

The status of Central Flyway goose populations is mixed. Fall populations of lesser snow, Ross', and white-fronted geese should be similar to or slightly better than last year, while declines in the abundance of breeding birds and harsh spring weather will result in a reduced fall flight of small Canada geese. On the prairies, production of large Canada geese was down in western Saskatchewan, southern Alberta, and eastern Montana, but increased in eastern Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and the Dakotas.