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Ducks Unlimited Special Report
By Matt Young Senior Writer
2000 Waterfowl Forecast
Although waterfowl numbers are down slightly overall, another impressive fall flight is expected this year Throughout history, the abundance of North America's waterfowl has been largely determined by weather cycles on their breeding grounds in the northern U.S. and Canada.
Thanks to several consecutive years of above-normal precipitation across the Prairie Pothole Region and the success of conservation programs supported by Ducks Unlimited and its partners, today's waterfowlers have enjoyed the longest period of high duck populations since the 1950s. Given the extreme variability of the weather, however, many in the waterfowl community have been wondering how much longer the good times will last.
This spring, the breeding season had an ominous start, as warm, dry weather on the prairies produced little runoff to recharge wetlands depleted last summer and fall. Although water remained in many larger marshes, shallow seasonal and temporary wetlands that provide critical food resources for breeding dabbling ducks were in short supply.
May pond numbers on the prairies declined by more than 40 percent from last year and were 20 percent below the long-term average. Despite the general deterioration of habitat conditions, large numbers of breeding ducks returned north to breed, reflecting the excellent waterfowl production that has occurred in recent years.
According to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), the total breeding duck population estimate in the surveyed area was 41.8 million birds, just 4 percent below last year's record of 43.4 million birds. Mallards had an estimated breeding population of 9.5 million birds-a level 27 percent above the long-term average.
Populations of wigeon, gadwalls, shovelers, redheads, and canvasbacks also remained healthy, and blue- and green-winged teal numbers surged to new record highs. Two species of concern-pintails and scaup-suffered slight declines in 2000 and remained well below management goals.
In late May, just as it appeared that the prairies might be entering another drought cycle, heavy rains started to fall across much of the region. Although too late for many breeding pairs, the dramatic improvement in wetland conditions benefited late nesting and renesting ducks, and provided excellent habitat for broods.
Where Did the Pintails Go? Despite improved wetland habitat conditions on the prairies in recent years, breeding pintail populations have remained well below the long-term average, especially in southern Saskatchewan and Alberta. In contrast, the abundance of pintails in Alaska and the Canadian Arctic has remained stable or increased.
In an effort to better understand the migration habits and breeding distribution of pintails in the Pacific Flyway, 50 hen pintails wintering in California's Sacramento Valley were captured and outfitted in January with backpack satellite transmitters, enabling waterfowl researchers to track their seasonal movements.
This groundbreaking study, supported by a grant to Ducks Unlimited from the Tuscany Research Institute, involves biologists from DU's Institute for Wetland and Waterfowl Research, the California Waterfowl Association, and the Western Ecological Center of the U.S. Geological Survey.
After tracking the pintails by satellite throughout the spring and summer, the researchers have made many valuable discoveries about the birds. Nearly all of the pintails in the study followed either of two primary migration corridors. The majority of birds left northern California in March and April and flew north through Oregon, Washington, and Montana to the prairies of Saskatchewan and Alberta. As expected, most of them didn't settle to breed on the parched western prairies and continued north to Alaska and the Canadian Arctic.
Smaller numbers of pintails remained on staging areas in northern California and southern Oregon well into April and early May, before flying directly across the Pacific Ocean to western Alaska. Remarkably, one of these wayfaring birds crossed the Bering Strait to spend the summer in Siberia.
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Aerial surveys conducted in July by the USFWS indicated that both duck and goose production was highly variable across the surveyed area. Once again, disproportionately high numbers of duck broods were counted in the eastern Dakotas, where several million acres of prime upland nesting cover have been restored under the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Conservation Reserve Program.
As this issue went to press, the USFWS had released a preliminary fall flight index of 90 million ducks, down roughly 13 percent from last year's record of 105 million birds. This includes a mallard fall flight of 11.3 million birds, compared to last year's index of 13.6 million. Goose production on many northern breeding areas also was down from last year, but most populations remain healthy overall.
The annual waterfowl breeding population estimates and wetland habitat surveys, which are critical to the management and conservation of continental waterfowl populations, are compiled from data gathered during extensive air and ground surveys conducted by the USFWS, Canadian Wildlife Service, and state and provincial wildlife agencies, with the assistance of volunteers from universities and private conservation organizations, including Ducks Unlimited. The following is a comprehensive waterfowl population forecast for each flyway, based upon reports from government and DU biologists in the field.
The Pacific Flyway
The Pacific Flyway receives most of its waterfowl from the western U.S. and Canada, with large numbers of birds coming from Alberta, Alaska, British Columbia, and the Northwest Territories. During 2000, decreased waterfowl production on the prairies and in northwestern Canada will result in a reduced fall flight in the flyway.
In Alberta, a light snow pack and dry spring weather provided fair to poor habitat conditions for breeding waterfowl across the province. Total breeding ducks in the prairie-parkland region were similar to last year. Pintails were up 64 percent, but remained 76 percent below the long-term average.
Canvasbacks, wigeon, and blue- and green-winged teal also increased, while mallards, gadwalls, redheads, and shovelers declined. In June and July, much of central Alberta received severe thunderstorms and torrential rains that replenished wetlands in many areas and filled some basins that had been dry throughout May.
DU Canada biologist Jonathon Thompson reports, "Waterfowl breeding habitat conditions across the parkland regions have continued to improve throughout the summer. We have seen large numbers of late broods in many areas, indicating that the rains came in time for many hens to take advantage of the improved wetland conditions. The wet weather also delayed hay harvests in the parklands well into July, which may have increased nesting success for dabbling ducks."
Dry spring habitat conditions in the boreal forest of Alberta, northeastern British Columbia, and the Northwest Territories resulted in a 17 percent decline in duck numbers across this vast region. In Alaska and the Yukon Territories, the abundance of breeding ducks rose 30 percent to a new record high of 6.7 million birds.
"Because of the dry conditions on the western prairies and parklands, many pintails continued flying north to Alaska this year," says DU biologist Dr. Fritz Reid. "Spring weather conditions were generally favorable for breeding waterfowl throughout the state, and good production is expected for most waterfowl species, including green-winged teal, mallards, and wigeon."
Pacific Flyway goose production was variable across northern breeding areas this year. Harsh spring weather in the western Canadian Arctic resulted in decreased production of light geese, white-fronted geese, and Pacific brant. Breeding geese fared better in Alaska, where most species had average or above average production.
Central Flyway
The majority of Central Flyway waterfowl are raised on the prairies of the U.S. and Canada, with a large proportion of birds coming from Saskatchewan, eastern Montana, and North and South Dakota. This year, declines in waterfowl production on the Canadian prairies and in eastern Montana will result in a slightly reduced fall flight in the flyway.
Across the vast prairies and parklands of Saskatchewan, May pond numbers were down 45 percent from last year, limiting the habitat available for breeding pairs in many areas. Total breeding duck numbers declined 21 percent, but remained 3 percent above the long-term average.
All major duck species decreased, except redheads, which increased by 12 percent. Pintails had the biggest drop-down 47 percent from 1999. Beginning in late May, much of southern and eastern Saskatchewan received frequent heavy rains, dramatically improving wetland and upland habitat conditions.
Veteran Canadian Wildlife Service biologist Dan Nieman reports, "During the May surveys, we witnessed tremendous crowding among breeding pairs on limited wetland habitats, and in several instances we saw pairs occupying dry wetland basins. Although the improved wetland conditions in June and July undoubtedly benefited some late-nesting birds and may have improved brood survival, the rains appear to have come too late to significantly improve waterfowl production in the province."
In Montana, both May pond numbers and breeding ducks declined by nearly 50 percent. As in Saskatchewan, heavy late spring and summer rains recharged wetland basins in some areas of the state, but waterfowl production appears to have been below average overall.
Breeding waterfowl had much better success in North and South Dakota, where abundant carryover water and timely rains produced good to excellent habitat conditions across both states. A record 7.4 million breeding ducks were surveyed in North Dakota, while South Dakota's index of 4 million ducks was the second-highest ever recorded. In the eastern Dakotas survey area, populations of mallards, gadwalls, and blue-winged teal were at record highs.
The great abundance of breeding ducks, coupled with good wetland conditions and large tracts of prime upland nesting cover enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program, set the stage for spectacular waterfowl production in the Dakotas.
DU biologist Dr. Jim Ringelman says, "Continual summer rains have steadily improved pond conditions across North Dakota and the northern half of South Dakota. The abundance of seasonal wetlands on the landscape has fostered a strong renesting effort and has provided excellent habitat for late nesters and broods. Our field staff has observed large numbers of broods both in the Missouri Coteau region and on the more intensively farmed Drift Prairie, indicating that duck production was good across a widespread area."
As in the Pacific Flyway, production among most Central Flyway goose populations was down from 1999, following a late spring thaw on northern breeding areas. Another large fall flight of lesser snow, Ross', white-fronted, and small subspecies of Canada geese is expected, but most flocks will consist of fewer juvenile birds than in past years. On the prairies, production of large Canada geese once again was excellent, and a large fall flight is expected.
The Mississippi Flyway
The Mississippi Flyway receives most of its waterfowl from the prairies of the U.S. and Canada, as well as Ontario and the Great Lakes states. Decreased waterfowl production on the Canadian prairies will result in a slightly reduced fall flight in this flyway.
In Manitoba, dry spring weather caused a 24 percent decline in May pond numbers in the southern half of the province. Total duck numbers in the prairie-parkland region declined 12 percent from last year and were 4 percent below the long-term average. Mallards, gadwalls, blue-winged teal, pintails, canvasbacks, and scaup declined, while redheads, green-winged teal, and shovelers increased.
In northern Manitoba, total duck numbers increased 8 percent from last year, but remained slightly below the long-term average. As in Alberta and Saskatchewan, heavy rains fell across much of the province in late spring and early summer, creating excellent wetland habitat for renesting birds and broods.
In neighboring Ontario, a dry early spring was followed by several consecutive weeks of unusually wet weather, and wetland conditions improved dramatically as the season progressed. Total duck numbers surveyed in the western half of the province increased 83 percent from 1999, while duck numbers in the central region declined 37 percent.
DU Canada biologist Joel Ingram reports that overall duck production appears to have been better than average in Ontario. "After a slow start, there was a strong breeding effort in the province, especially among mallards and black ducks," Ingram says. "The wet weather also delayed hay cutting and provided excellent brood habitat in many areas."
Habitat conditions also improved during the spring in the Great Lakes states, which collectively support more than 1 million breeding mallards and a wide variety of other waterfowl. DU biologist Gildo Tori says, "Heavy late spring and summer rains have refilled many wetland basins that had low water levels or were dry earlier in the spring. We also have had excellent production of smartweed and other moist soil plants in many marshes, which has been good for broods and will provide excellent habitat for migrating waterfowl in the fall."
Mississippi Flyway Canada goose populations are expected to be similar to last year, with the exception of the Southern James Bay population, which is down considerably. A reduced flight of lesser snow geese is expected as poor production in the Hudson Bay Lowlands will result in a low ratio of juvenile to adult geese this fall.
Atlantic Flyway
Although the Atlantic Flyway receives large numbers of some duck species such as canvasbacks and redheads from the prairies, the majority of the region's waterfowl are raised in the eastern U.S. and Canada. Because habitat conditions are less variable in these regions than on the prairies, duck populations in the Atlantic Flyway are generally more stable than in other flyways. During 2000, average waterfowl populations and generally good habitat conditions across the eastern U.S. and Canada should result in a fall flight similar to that of last year.
Spring weather in the eastern survey area varied from cool and wet in the Maritimes Provinces to warm and dry in southern Ontario and Quebec. Total duck numbers were unchanged from last year and remained slightly above the five-year average. Mallards, black ducks, wigeon, buffleheads, and blue- and green-winged teal declined, while goldeneyes, ring-necked ducks, mergansers, and scoters increased. According to the Canadian Wildlife Service, however, breeding black duck numbers in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island were near a 10-year high.
DU Canada biologist Dr. Mark Gloutney reports, "This was a generally good year for waterfowl production in Atlantic Canada. We have received ample rainfall throughout the spring and summer to maintain wetlands at good levels for breeding waterfowl. In addition, large numbers of broods have been observed during July waterfowl surveys, suggesting that duck production was good overall."
In northern Quebec, the breeding population of Atlantic Canada geese was up 20 percent, from roughly 77,000 pairs in 1999 to 93,000 pairs in 2000. Unfortunately, harsh spring weather resulted in poor production of young birds this year. Farther north, in the eastern Canadian Arctic, inclement weather negatively impacted breeding success among Atlantic brant. Gosling production among greater snow geese also was poor, but the population remains near an all-time high.
A Look Ahead
Following a dry spring, duck production declined across much of the Prairie Pothole Region in 2000. Most waterfowl populations, however, remain at high levels after several consecutive years of good production. In addition, heavy summer rains have recharged wetlands and fostered lush growth of upland nesting cover in many areas, dramatically improving waterfowl habitat conditions. If the prairies receive enough winter and spring precipitation to maintain wetland habitats through the next breeding season, North America's waterfowl could have yet another banner year in 2001.
Hunting Success Remains High During the past five years, surging duck and goose populations have provided waterfowlers with unprecedented hunting opportunities throughout North America. In most areas of the U.S., waterfowl harvests have kept pace with liberalized bag limits and season lengths. The USFWS estimates that American waterfowlers bagged 15,770,400 ducks during the 1999-2000 waterfowl season-down 7 percent from the previous year's record harvest.
The U.S. goose harvest of roughly 3 million birds also was just below an all-time high. The five most commonly taken duck species were mallards (35 percent of total harvest), green-winged teal (14 percent), gadwalls (11 percent), wood ducks (10 percent), and blue-winged/cinnamon teal (7 percent). Duck stamp sales totaled 1,632,218-a slight increase from the previous season.
Although total numbers of active adult waterfowl hunters have made only modest gains in recent years, today's waterfowlers are enjoying more time in the field and bagging more birds than at any other time in modern history. Last season, waterfowlers spent an average of nine days afield and bagged approximately 10 ducks and two geese each. In total, waterfowlers hunted nearly 14.3 million days across the U.S. The largest increases in both hunter participation and harvest have occurred in the Mississippi Flyway, followed by the Central, Pacific, and Atlantic flyways, respectively.
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November / December 2008 Issue
Feature Stories
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